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  4. 2009
NO logo

New Orleans Saints

2009 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
16-3
nfelo Rating
16583rd
Point Diff / Game
+11.41st
Net EPA / Play
+0.1891st

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
DET logo
DET
W
45-27
+18
-14
W
38
2
PHI logo
PHI@
W
48-22
+26
-3
W
71
3
BUF logo
BUF@
W
27-07
+20
-6
W
12
4
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
24-10
+14
-7.5
W
-3
5BYE WEEK
6
NYG logo
NYG
W
48-27
+21
-3
W
28
7
MIA logo
MIA@
W
46-34
+12
-6.5
W
12
8
ATL logo
ATL
W
35-27
+8
-11
L
-1
9
CAR logo
CAR
W
30-20
+10
-11.5
L
-8
10
LAR logo
LAR@
W
28-23
+5
-14
L
-14
11
TB logo
TB@
W
38-07
+31
-10
W
26
12
NE logo
NE
W
38-17
+21
-2
W
23
13
WAS logo
WAS@
W
33-30
+3
-9
L
-2
14
ATL logo
ATL@
W
26-23
+3
-10
L
-3
15
DAL logo
DAL
L
17-24
-7
-7.5
L
-20
16
TB logo
TB
L
17-20
-3
-14
L
-188
17
CAR logo
CAR@
L
10-23
-13
+10
L
128
18BYE WEEK
19
ARI logo
ARI
W
45-14
+31
-7
W
26
20
MIN logo
MIN
W
31-28
+3
-4
L
0
21
IND logo
IND@
W
31-17
+14
+4.5
W
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.14
2nd
EPA / Pass
+0.25
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.01
7th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.04
11th
EPA / Pass
-0.11
7th
EPA / Rush
+0.04
31st
Sack EPA
-2.69
6th
Turnover EPA
-4.97
30th
Point Differential
+11.4
1st
Points For
32.5
1st
Points Against
21.1
18th
Total Yards
393.2
1st
Passing Yards
193.9
16th
Rushing Yards
126.6
10th
Total Yards Allowed
367.9
28th
Passing Allowed
192.3
21st
Rushing Allowed
122.4
22nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
44%
6th
4th Down
39%
25th
Red Zone
61%
4th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
15th
4th Down
44%
9th
Red Zone
43%
3rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
11th
Created
2.4
1st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
5th
Created
1.6
3rd

Fumbles

Lost
0.9
28th
Created
0.8
4th