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Las Vegas Raiders

2011 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-8
nfelo Rating
150418th
Point Diff / Game
-4.623rd
Net EPA / Play
-0.06822nd

2011 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
DEN logo
DEN@
W
23-20
+3
+3
W
3
2
BUF logo
BUF@
L
35-38
-3
+3.5
W
26
3
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
34-24
+10
+2.5
W
10
4
NE logo
NE
L
19-31
-12
+6.5
L
-17
5
HOU logo
HOU@
W
25-20
+5
+4.5
W
34
6
CLE logo
CLE
W
24-17
+7
-7
P
-76
7
KC logo
KC
L
00-28
-28
-3.5
L
101
8BYE WEEK
9
DEN logo
DEN
L
24-38
-14
-7
L
-24
10
LAC logo
LAC@
W
24-17
+7
+7
W
13
11
MIN logo
MIN@
W
27-21
+6
+2
W
5
12
CHI logo
CHI
W
25-20
+5
-3
W
-7
13
MIA logo
MIA@
L
14-34
-20
+3
L
-13
14
GB logo
GB@
L
16-46
-30
+12
L
-17
15
DET logo
DET
L
27-28
-1
+3
W
-2
16
KC logo
KC@
W
16-13
+3
+3
W
4
17
LAC logo
LAC
L
26-38
-12
-2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.03
10th
EPA / Pass
+0.05
13th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
8th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.09
30th
EPA / Pass
+0.07
25th
EPA / Rush
+0.03
29th
Sack EPA
-2.28
2nd
Turnover EPA
-7.68
11th
Point Differential
-4.6
23rd
Points For
22.4
16th
Points Against
27.1
29th
Total Yards
379.5
9th
Passing Yards
165.1
26th
Rushing Yards
131.9
6th
Total Yards Allowed
387.1
29th
Passing Allowed
202.8
16th
Rushing Allowed
136.1
27th

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
21st
4th Down
54%
8th
Red Zone
47%
23rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
42%
25th
4th Down
29%
5th
Red Zone
56%
23rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
25th
Created
1.6
16th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.4
27th
Created
1.1
10th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
6th
Created
0.5
26th