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  4. 2009
SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2009 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-8
nfelo Rating
151819th
Point Diff / Game
+3.112th
Net EPA / Play
+0.04512th

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ARI logo
ARI@
W
20-16
+4
+4.5
W
17
2
SEA logo
SEA
W
23-10
+13
-1
W
8
3
MIN logo
MIN@
L
24-27
-3
+6.5
W
22
4
LAR logo
LAR
W
35-00
+35
-9.5
W
13
5
ATL logo
ATL
L
10-45
-35
-1
L
-19
6BYE WEEK
7
HOU logo
HOU@
L
21-24
-3
+3.5
W
-57
8
IND logo
IND@
L
14-18
-4
+13
W
33
9
TEN logo
TEN
L
27-34
-7
-4.5
L
-6
10
CHI logo
CHI
W
10-06
+4
-3.5
W
6
11
GB logo
GB@
L
24-30
-6
+6
P
20
12
JAX logo
JAX
W
20-03
+17
-3
W
20
13
SEA logo
SEA@
L
17-20
-3
2
14
ARI logo
ARI
W
24-09
+15
+4.5
W
10
15
PHI logo
PHI@
L
13-27
-14
+7.5
L
-14
16
DET logo
DET
W
20-06
+14
-14
P
6
17
LAR logo
LAR@
W
28-06
+22
-7
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.06
23rd
EPA / Pass
-0.08
21st
EPA / Rush
-0.10
20th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.10
2nd
EPA / Pass
-0.12
5th
EPA / Rush
-0.18
3rd
Sack EPA
-4.01
22nd
Turnover EPA
-4.94
31st
Point Differential
+3.1
12th
Points For
20.6
18th
Points Against
17.6
4th
Total Yards
290.8
27th
Passing Yards
176.3
18th
Rushing Yards
100.0
24th
Total Yards Allowed
326.4
15th
Passing Allowed
170.5
9th
Rushing Allowed
97.0
6th

Conversions For

3rd Down
30%
29th
4th Down
57%
10th
Red Zone
59%
6th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
10th
4th Down
40%
4th
Red Zone
40%
2nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
5th
Created
2.2
5th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
10th
Created
1.1
10th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
6th
Created
1.1
1st