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  4. 2011
SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2011 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
14-4
nfelo Rating
16187th
Point Diff / Game
+8.44th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1474th

2011 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
SEA logo
SEA
W
33-17
+16
-6
W
14
2
DAL logo
DAL
L
24-27
-3
+3
P
-34
3
CIN logo
CIN@
W
13-08
+5
+1
W
31
4
PHI logo
PHI@
W
24-23
+1
+10
W
15
5
TB logo
TB
W
48-03
+45
-3
W
21
6
DET logo
DET@
W
25-19
+6
+5
W
18
7BYE WEEK
8
CLE logo
CLE
W
20-10
+10
-9
W
9
9
WAS logo
WAS@
W
19-11
+8
-5
W
36
10
NYG logo
NYG
W
27-20
+7
-4
W
-1
11
ARI logo
ARI
W
23-07
+16
-10
W
14
12
BAL logo
BAL@
L
06-16
-10
+3.5
L
-24
13
LAR logo
LAR
W
26-00
+26
-14
W
23
14
ARI logo
ARI@
L
19-21
-2
-3.5
L
-20
15
PIT logo
PIT
W
20-03
+17
-3
W
17
16
SEA logo
SEA@
W
19-17
+2
-2.5
L
-1
17
LAR logo
LAR@
W
34-27
+7
-12.5
L
-1
18BYE WEEK
19
NO logo
NO
W
36-32
+4
+3.5
W
15
20
NYG logo
NYG
L
17-20
-3
-2
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.02
12th
EPA / Pass
+0.04
14th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
17th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.13
1st
EPA / Pass
-0.08
5th
EPA / Rush
-0.18
1st
Sack EPA
-4.22
20th
Turnover EPA
-1.72
32nd
Point Differential
+8.4
4th
Points For
24.1
9th
Points Against
15.6
2nd
Total Yards
317.3
24th
Passing Yards
143.9
29th
Rushing Yards
129.8
8th
Total Yards Allowed
319.9
7th
Passing Allowed
235.6
29th
Rushing Allowed
75.4
1st

Conversions For

3rd Down
28%
31st
4th Down
64%
3rd
Red Zone
40%
30th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
35%
11th
4th Down
39%
11th
Red Zone
43%
4th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.7
1st
Created
2.4
2nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.3
1st
Created
1.4
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
8th
Created
1.0
1st