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  4. 2013
SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2013 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
14-5
nfelo Rating
17032nd
Point Diff / Game
+7.63rd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1423rd

2013 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
GB logo
GB
W
34-28
+6
-5
W
20
2
SEA logo
SEA@
L
03-29
-26
+3
L
-26
3
IND logo
IND
L
07-27
-20
-10.5
L
-50
4
LAR logo
LAR@
W
35-11
+24
-3.5
W
11
5
HOU logo
HOU
W
34-03
+31
-4
W
9
6
ARI logo
ARI
W
32-20
+12
-10
W
16
7
TEN logo
TEN@
W
31-17
+14
-3.5
W
12
8
JAX logo
JAX@
W
42-10
+32
-16
W
27
9BYE WEEK
10
CAR logo
CAR
L
09-10
-1
-6
L
-26
11
NO logo
NO@
L
20-23
-3
+3
P
-1
12
WAS logo
WAS@
W
27-06
+21
-6
W
22
13
LAR logo
LAR
W
23-13
+10
-7.5
W
-9
14
SEA logo
SEA
W
19-17
+2
-2.5
L
4
15
TB logo
TB@
W
33-14
+19
-4.5
W
15
16
ATL logo
ATL
W
34-24
+10
-14
L
-13
17
ARI logo
ARI@
W
23-20
+3
+3
W
7
18
GB logo
GB@
W
23-20
+3
-3
P
23
19
CAR logo
CAR@
W
23-10
+13
-1.5
W
31
20
SEA logo
SEA@
L
17-23
-6
+3.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.06
11th
EPA / Pass
+0.12
7th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
17th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.08
4th
EPA / Pass
-0.06
7th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
8th
Sack EPA
-3.85
11th
Turnover EPA
-3.85
31st
Point Differential
+7.6
3rd
Points For
24.7
13th
Points Against
17.1
3rd
Total Yards
325.5
24th
Passing Yards
176.4
26th
Rushing Yards
139.7
3rd
Total Yards Allowed
315.1
5th
Passing Allowed
204.7
15th
Rushing Allowed
98.4
4th

Conversions For

3rd Down
37%
18th
4th Down
67%
5th
Red Zone
52%
16th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
35%
10th
4th Down
43%
13th
Red Zone
47%
6th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
10th
Created
1.5
17th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
4th
Created
1.1
13th

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
26th
Created
0.5
26th