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SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2014 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-8
nfelo Rating
152915th
Point Diff / Game
-2.123rd
Net EPA / Play
-0.03321st

2014 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
DAL logo
DAL@
W
28-17
+11
-3.5
W
8
2
CHI logo
CHI
L
20-28
-8
-7
L
-24
3
ARI logo
ARI@
L
14-23
-9
-3
L
-5
4
PHI logo
PHI
W
26-21
+5
-4
W
-8
5
KC logo
KC
W
22-17
+5
-4.5
W
-14
6
LAR logo
LAR@
W
31-17
+14
-3.5
W
21
7
DEN logo
DEN@
L
17-42
-25
+6.5
L
-27
8BYE WEEK
9
LAR logo
LAR
L
10-13
-3
-10.5
L
-20
10
NO logo
NO@
W
27-24
+3
+5.5
W
10
11
NYG logo
NYG@
W
16-10
+6
-4
W
25
12
WAS logo
WAS
W
17-13
+4
-9.5
L
-11
13
SEA logo
SEA
L
03-19
-16
-1.5
L
-22
14
OAK logo
OAK@
L
13-24
-11
-9
L
-20
15
SEA logo
SEA@
L
07-17
-10
+9.5
L
-11
16
LAC logo
LAC
L
35-38
-3
-1.5
L
-5
17
ARI logo
ARI
W
20-17
+3
-6.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.06
20th
EPA / Pass
-0.01
18th
EPA / Rush
-0.12
20th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.03
18th
EPA / Pass
-0.00
15th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
16th
Sack EPA
-5.42
28th
Turnover EPA
-6.08
17th
Point Differential
-2.1
23rd
Points For
19.1
25th
Points Against
21.3
10th
Total Yards
327.4
21st
Passing Yards
170.0
27th
Rushing Yards
136.0
4th
Total Yards Allowed
321.4
5th
Passing Allowed
194.9
14th
Rushing Allowed
100.8
7th

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
14th
4th Down
56%
8th
Red Zone
43%
29th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
26th
4th Down
50%
19th
Red Zone
61%
28th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
10th
Created
1.9
3rd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
4th
Created
1.4
1st

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
19th
Created
0.4
25th