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  4. 2017
SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2017 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
144719th
Point Diff / Game
-3.319th
Net EPA / Play
-0.05818th

2017 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CAR logo
CAR
L
03-23
-20
+5
L
-31
2
SEA logo
SEA@
L
09-12
-3
+13.5
W
3
3
LAR logo
LAR
L
39-41
-2
+3
W
9
4
ARI logo
ARI@
L
15-18
-3
+6.5
W
3
5
IND logo
IND@
L
23-26
-3
+1.5
L
29
6
WAS logo
WAS@
L
24-26
-2
+11
W
-25
7
DAL logo
DAL
L
10-40
-30
+6.5
L
-13
8
PHI logo
PHI@
L
10-33
-23
+13
L
-13
9
ARI logo
ARI
L
10-20
-10
+2.5
L
-7
10
NYG logo
NYG
W
31-21
+10
+3
W
24
11BYE WEEK
12
SEA logo
SEA
L
13-24
-11
+7
L
30
13
CHI logo
CHI@
W
15-14
+1
+2.5
W
12
14
HOU logo
HOU@
W
26-16
+10
+1.5
W
21
15
TEN logo
TEN
W
25-23
+2
-2.5
L
13
16
JAX logo
JAX
W
44-33
+11
+4
W
18
17
LAR logo
LAR@
W
34-13
+21
-6.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.05
16th
EPA / Pass
-0.04
17th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
9th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
25th
EPA / Pass
+0.08
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
11th
Sack EPA
-5.04
22nd
Turnover EPA
-6.48
10th
Point Differential
-3.3
19th
Points For
20.7
19th
Points Against
23.9
25th
Total Yards
349.2
12th
Passing Yards
209.1
11th
Rushing Yards
103.9
20th
Total Yards Allowed
351.9
25th
Passing Allowed
165.0
4th
Rushing Allowed
116.4
22nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
16th
4th Down
44%
19th
Red Zone
46%
28th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
30th
4th Down
83%
32nd
Red Zone
60%
26th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
20th
Created
1.3
19th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
23rd
Created
0.6
25th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
13th
Created
0.6
9th