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SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2018 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-12
nfelo Rating
141823rd
Point Diff / Game
-5.827th
Net EPA / Play
-0.09527th

2018 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIN logo
MIN@
L
16-24
-8
+6.5
L
-9
2
DET logo
DET
W
30-27
+3
-6
L
-5
3
KC logo
KC@
L
27-38
-11
+6
L
-65
4
LAC logo
LAC@
L
27-29
-2
+10
W
17
5
ARI logo
ARI
L
18-28
-10
-3
L
-24
6
GB logo
GB@
L
30-33
-3
+9.5
W
14
7
LAR logo
LAR
L
10-39
-29
+9
L
-30
8
ARI logo
ARI@
L
15-18
-3
-2.5
L
-85
9
OAK logo
OAK
W
34-03
+31
+1.5
W
33
10
NYG logo
NYG
L
23-27
-4
-3
L
4
11BYE WEEK
12
TB logo
TB@
L
09-27
-18
+2
L
-11
13
SEA logo
SEA@
L
16-43
-27
+9.5
L
4
14
DEN logo
DEN
W
20-14
+6
+3
W
18
15
SEA logo
SEA
W
26-23
+3
+4
W
26
16
CHI logo
CHI
L
09-14
-5
+3.5
L
12
17
LAR logo
LAR@
L
32-48
-16
+10.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.04
21st
EPA / Pass
+0.00
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.12
28th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
26th
EPA / Pass
+0.15
28th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
9th
Sack EPA
-5.61
25th
Turnover EPA
-10.30
1st
Point Differential
-5.8
27th
Points For
21.4
22nd
Points Against
27.2
28th
Total Yards
360.8
14th
Passing Yards
209.9
16th
Rushing Yards
118.9
12th
Total Yards Allowed
346.9
13th
Passing Allowed
219.6
20th
Rushing Allowed
113.4
13th

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
17th
4th Down
50%
19th
Red Zone
41%
32nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
21st
4th Down
59%
18th
Red Zone
66%
26th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
31st
Created
0.5
32nd

Interceptions

Thrown
1.3
30th
Created
0.1
32nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
25th
Created
0.4
26th