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  4. 2019
SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2019 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
15-4
nfelo Rating
16594th
Point Diff / Game
+10.13rd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1933rd

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
TB logo
TB@
W
31-17
+14
+1
W
6
2
CIN logo
CIN@
W
41-17
+24
+1
W
38
3
PIT logo
PIT
W
24-20
+4
-6
L
-20
4BYE WEEK
5
CLE logo
CLE
W
31-03
+28
-5
W
26
6
LAR logo
LAR@
W
20-07
+13
+3
W
19
7
WAS logo
WAS@
W
09-00
+9
-10
L
6
8
CAR logo
CAR
W
51-13
+38
-4
W
14
9
ARI logo
ARI@
W
28-25
+3
-10
L
6
10
SEA logo
SEA
L
24-27
-3
-6.5
L
-17
11
ARI logo
ARI
W
36-26
+10
-10
P
19
12
GB logo
GB
W
37-08
+29
-3
W
27
13
BAL logo
BAL@
L
17-20
-3
+6
W
17
14
NO logo
NO@
W
48-46
+2
+1.5
W
26
15
ATL logo
ATL
L
22-29
-7
-10
L
-26
16
LAR logo
LAR
W
34-31
+3
-7
L
-9
17
SEA logo
SEA@
W
26-21
+5
-3.5
W
15
18BYE WEEK
19
MIN logo
MIN
W
27-10
+17
-7
W
11
20
GB logo
GB
W
37-20
+17
-8
W
19
21
KC logo
KC@
L
20-31
-11
+1.5
L
66

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.06
4th
EPA / Pass
+0.16
5th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
8th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.13
3rd
EPA / Pass
-0.17
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.09
13th
Sack EPA
-4.43
15th
Turnover EPA
-5.89
13th
Point Differential
+10.1
3rd
Points For
29.6
3rd
Points Against
19.5
7th
Total Yards
374.4
8th
Passing Yards
204.5
15th
Rushing Yards
153.5
2nd
Total Yards Allowed
285.1
2nd
Passing Allowed
143.6
2nd
Rushing Allowed
106.1
12th

Conversions For

3rd Down
44%
5th
4th Down
50%
12th
Red Zone
56%
19th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
33%
2nd
4th Down
38%
8th
Red Zone
63%
27th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
25th
Created
1.6
6th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
20th
Created
0.9
7th

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
26th
Created
0.7
5th