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  4. 2021
SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2021 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
12-8
nfelo Rating
16276th
Point Diff / Game
+3.411th
Net EPA / Play
+0.06811th

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
DET logo
DET@
W
41-33
+8
-9.5
L
43
2
PHI logo
PHI@
W
17-11
+6
-3
W
15
3
GB logo
GB
L
28-30
-2
-3
L
-8
4
SEA logo
SEA
L
21-28
-7
-2.5
L
-31
5
ARI logo
ARI@
L
10-17
-7
+5.5
L
4
6BYE WEEK
7
IND logo
IND
L
18-30
-12
-3.5
L
-29
8
CHI logo
CHI@
W
33-22
+11
-4.5
W
31
9
ARI logo
ARI
L
17-31
-14
-5.5
L
-9
10
LAR logo
LAR
W
31-10
+21
+3.5
W
17
11
JAX logo
JAX@
W
30-10
+20
-6.5
W
13
12
MIN logo
MIN
W
34-26
+8
-4
W
3
13
SEA logo
SEA@
L
23-30
-7
-2.5
L
-6
14
CIN logo
CIN@
W
26-23
+3
-2.5
W
9
15
ATL logo
ATL
W
31-13
+18
-9
W
10
16
TEN logo
TEN@
L
17-20
-3
-3.5
L
-38
17
HOU logo
HOU
W
23-07
+16
-12
W
32
18
LAR logo
LAR@
W
27-24
+3
+3.5
W
8
19
DAL logo
DAL@
W
23-17
+6
+3
W
33
20
GB logo
GB@
W
13-10
+3
+5.5
W
-6
21
LAR logo
LAR@
L
17-20
-3
+3.5
W
48

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.04
11th
EPA / Pass
+0.15
8th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
15th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.03
13th
EPA / Pass
-0.01
13th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
7th
Sack EPA
-3.30
7th
Turnover EPA
-5.33
19th
Point Differential
+3.4
11th
Points For
24.0
15th
Points Against
20.6
5th
Total Yards
361.3
11th
Passing Yards
179.1
26th
Rushing Yards
124.7
7th
Total Yards Allowed
312.1
4th
Passing Allowed
213.3
19th
Rushing Allowed
98.8
6th

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
14th
4th Down
48%
24th
Red Zone
63%
6th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
21st
4th Down
43%
5th
Red Zone
54%
13th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
22nd
Created
1.0
25th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
20th
Created
0.6
26th

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
30th
Created
0.5
15th