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  4. 2022
SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2022 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
15-5
nfelo Rating
16591st
Point Diff / Game
+8.72nd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1691st

2022 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CHI logo
CHI@
L
10-19
-9
-6.5
L
-11
2
SEA logo
SEA
W
27-07
+20
-8
W
70
3
DEN logo
DEN@
L
10-11
-1
-1.5
L
-17
4
LAR logo
LAR
W
24-09
+15
-2
W
13
5
CAR logo
CAR@
W
37-15
+22
-6
W
10
6
ATL logo
ATL@
L
14-28
-14
-3
L
-16
7
KC logo
KC
L
23-44
-21
-33
8
LAR logo
LAR@
W
31-14
+17
+1
W
16
9BYE WEEK
10
LAC logo
LAC
W
22-16
+6
-8
L
4
11
ARI logo
ARI@
W
38-10
+28
-8
W
18
12
NO logo
NO
W
13-00
+13
-8.5
W
8
13
MIA logo
MIA
W
33-17
+16
-5
W
-150
14
TB logo
TB
W
35-07
+28
-3.5
W
78
15
SEA logo
SEA@
W
21-13
+8
-3
W
27
16
WAS logo
WAS
W
37-20
+17
-6.5
W
18
17
OAK logo
OAK@
W
37-34
+3
-10
L
6
18
ARI logo
ARI
W
38-13
+25
-14.5
W
16
19
SEA logo
SEA
W
41-23
+18
-10
W
35
20
DAL logo
DAL
W
19-12
+7
-3.5
W
10
21
PHI logo
PHI@
L
07-31
-24
+2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.05
6th
EPA / Pass
+0.19
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.06
23rd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.12
1st
EPA / Pass
-0.12
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.11
2nd
Sack EPA
-3.42
9th
Turnover EPA
-3.72
31st
Point Differential
+8.7
2nd
Points For
25.9
6th
Points Against
17.1
1st
Total Yards
359.9
6th
Passing Yards
161.1
27th
Rushing Yards
136.8
7th
Total Yards Allowed
299.6
2nd
Passing Allowed
186.3
19th
Rushing Allowed
82.5
2nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
45%
6th
4th Down
37%
29th
Red Zone
53%
19th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
13th
4th Down
52%
16th
Red Zone
57%
20th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
7th
Created
1.6
2nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
3rd
Created
1.1
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
26th
Created
0.5
19th