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  4. 2023
SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
14-6
nfelo Rating
16973rd
Point Diff / Game
+9.83rd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1823rd

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PIT logo
PIT@
W
30-07
+23
-1
W
16
2
LAR logo
LAR@
W
30-23
+7
-7
P
15
3
NYG logo
NYG
W
30-12
+18
-10.5
W
14
4
ARI logo
ARI
W
35-16
+19
-15
W
34
5
DAL logo
DAL
W
42-10
+32
-3.5
W
22
6
CLE logo
CLE@
L
17-19
-2
-9.5
L
-20
7
MIN logo
MIN@
L
17-22
-5
-6.5
L
-15
8
CIN logo
CIN
L
17-31
-14
-4
L
-39
9BYE WEEK
10
JAX logo
JAX@
W
34-03
+31
-3
W
37
11
TB logo
TB
W
27-14
+13
-14
L
9
12
SEA logo
SEA@
W
31-13
+18
-7
W
9
13
PHI logo
PHI@
W
42-19
+23
-3
W
33
14
SEA logo
SEA
W
28-16
+12
-14.5
L
3
15
ARI logo
ARI@
W
45-29
+16
-12
W
10
16
BAL logo
BAL
L
19-33
-14
-6.5
L
-27
17
WAS logo
WAS@
W
27-10
+17
-14
W
-43
18
LAR logo
LAR
L
20-21
-1
-5.5
L
44
19BYE WEEK
20
GB logo
GB
W
24-21
+3
-10.5
L
-11
21
DET logo
DET
W
34-31
+3
-7
L
-22
22
KC logo
KC@
L
22-25
-3
-2
L
-29

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.15
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.27
1st
EPA / Rush
+0.03
5th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.03
18th
EPA / Pass
-0.09
8th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
21st
Sack EPA
-3.25
5th
Turnover EPA
-4.37
24th
Point Differential
+9.8
3rd
Points For
28.6
2nd
Points Against
18.8
4th
Total Yards
396.2
1st
Passing Yards
244.8
1st
Rushing Yards
138.3
4th
Total Yards Allowed
319.9
9th
Passing Allowed
192.6
17th
Rushing Allowed
98.7
5th

Conversions For

3rd Down
47%
4th
4th Down
53%
13th
Red Zone
68%
1st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
42%
27th
4th Down
48%
14th
Red Zone
53%
11th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
9th
Created
1.6
5th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
12th
Created
1.3
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
9th
Created
0.4
28th