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  4. 2025
SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
13-5
nfelo Rating
16096th
Point Diff / Game
+3.99th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0798th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
SEA logo
SEA@
W
17-13
+4
-1.5
W
-47
2
NO logo
NO@
W
26-21
+5
-3
W
13
3
ARI logo
ARI
W
16-15
+1
-1.5
L
59
4
JAX logo
JAX
L
21-26
-5
-3.5
L
-74
5
LAR logo
LAR@
W
26-23
+3
+7.5
W
17
6
TB logo
TB@
L
19-30
-11
+3.5
L
-17
7
ATL logo
ATL
W
20-10
+10
+1
W
4
8
HOU logo
HOU@
L
15-26
-11
+2.5
L
-2
9
NYG logo
NYG@
W
34-24
+10
-2.5
W
31
10
LAR logo
LAR
L
26-42
-16
+5.5
L
14
11
ARI logo
ARI@
W
41-22
+19
-3.5
W
15
12
CAR logo
CAR
W
20-09
+11
-7.5
W
-4
13
CLE logo
CLE@
W
26-08
+18
-5.5
W
29
14BYE WEEK
15
TEN logo
TEN
W
37-24
+13
-12.5
W
6
16
IND logo
IND@
W
48-27
+21
-4.5
W
72
17
CHI logo
CHI
W
42-38
+4
-3.5
W
5
18
SEA logo
SEA
L
03-13
-10
+2.5
L
-45
19
PHI logo
PHI@
W
23-19
+4
+5.5
W
5
20
SEA logo
SEA@
01/17
-
+7.5
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.11
7th
EPA / Pass
+0.17
7th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
23rd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.03
16th
EPA / Pass
+0.10
24th
EPA / Rush
-0.01
21st
Sack EPA
-2.88
6th
Turnover EPA
-5.60
12th
Point Differential
+3.9
9th
Points For
25.6
10th
Points Against
21.7
12th
Total Yards
352.2
7th
Passing Yards
218.6
3rd
Rushing Yards
105.1
25th
Total Yards Allowed
338.5
20th
Passing Allowed
148.6
3rd
Rushing Allowed
109.7
12th

Conversions For

3rd Down
50%
1st
4th Down
59%
13th
Red Zone
65%
4th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
14th
4th Down
56%
18th
Red Zone
55%
13th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
26th
Created
0.8
26th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.0
27th
Created
0.3
31st

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
8th
Created
0.5
14th