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TB logo

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2011 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
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    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
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  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-12
nfelo Rating
135231st
Point Diff / Game
-12.931st
Net EPA / Play
-0.22131st

2011 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
DET logo
DET
L
20-27
-7
-1.5
L
-24
2
MIN logo
MIN@
W
24-20
+4
+1
W
20
3
ATL logo
ATL
W
16-13
+3
-1
W
10
4
IND logo
IND
W
24-17
+7
-10
L
1
5
SF logo
SF@
L
03-48
-45
+3
L
-27
6
NO logo
NO
W
26-20
+6
+6.5
W
15
7
CHI logo
CHI
L
18-24
-6
+1.5
L
-15
8BYE WEEK
9
NO logo
NO@
L
16-27
-11
+8.5
L
-6
10
HOU logo
HOU
L
09-37
-28
+4
L
-34
11
GB logo
GB@
L
26-35
-9
+13.5
W
30
12
TEN logo
TEN@
L
17-23
-6
+3
L
-114
13
CAR logo
CAR
L
19-38
-19
+1
L
93
14
JAX logo
JAX@
L
14-41
-27
-3
L
-18
15
DAL logo
DAL
L
15-31
-16
+7.5
L
-42
16
CAR logo
CAR@
L
16-48
-32
+7.5
L
-30
17
ATL logo
ATL@
L
24-45
-21
+10
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.09
27th
EPA / Pass
-0.11
24th
EPA / Rush
-0.12
29th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.13
32nd
EPA / Pass
+0.18
30th
EPA / Rush
+0.04
32nd
Sack EPA
-3.55
13th
Turnover EPA
-10.13
1st
Point Differential
-12.9
31st
Points For
17.9
27th
Points Against
30.9
32nd
Total Yards
319.5
21st
Passing Yards
198.2
14th
Rushing Yards
91.1
31st
Total Yards Allowed
394.4
30th
Passing Allowed
155.4
5th
Rushing Allowed
156.1
32nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
37%
18th
4th Down
38%
18th
Red Zone
50%
17th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
20th
4th Down
69%
31st
Red Zone
56%
25th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
2.4
32nd
Created
1.6
16th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.5
29th
Created
0.9
20th

Fumbles

Lost
0.9
29th
Created
0.8
4th