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TB logo

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2012 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
142625th
Point Diff / Game
-0.317th
Net EPA / Play
+0.00317th

2012 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CAR logo
CAR
W
16-10
+6
+3
W
7
2
NYG logo
NYG@
L
34-41
-7
+7.5
W
15
3
DAL logo
DAL@
L
10-16
-6
+7.5
W
-8
4
WAS logo
WAS
L
22-24
-2
-2
L
0
5BYE WEEK
6
KC logo
KC
W
38-10
+28
-5
W
37
7
NO logo
NO
L
28-35
-7
+1.5
L
7
8
MIN logo
MIN@
W
36-17
+19
+5.5
W
15
9
OAK logo
OAK@
W
42-32
+10
+1
W
24
10
LAC logo
LAC
W
34-24
+10
-3
W
8
11
CAR logo
CAR@
W
27-21
+6
-1
W
2
12
ATL logo
ATL
L
23-24
-1
+1
P
-8
13
DEN logo
DEN@
L
23-31
-8
+8
P
0
14
PHI logo
PHI
L
21-23
-2
-7
L
-21
15
NO logo
NO@
L
00-41
-41
+3.5
L
-31
16
LAR logo
LAR
L
13-28
-15
-3
L
-31
17
ATL logo
ATL@
W
22-17
+5
+3
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.02
15th
EPA / Pass
+0.04
15th
EPA / Rush
-0.01
9th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.02
18th
EPA / Pass
+0.11
25th
EPA / Rush
-0.14
2nd
Sack EPA
-2.67
5th
Turnover EPA
-5.61
21st
Point Differential
-0.3
17th
Points For
24.3
12th
Points Against
24.6
23rd
Total Yards
363.9
12th
Passing Yards
235.2
7th
Rushing Yards
114.8
16th
Total Yards Allowed
380.1
29th
Passing Allowed
203.4
17th
Rushing Allowed
82.6
1st

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
25th
4th Down
41%
23rd
Red Zone
60%
8th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
25th
4th Down
43%
9th
Red Zone
54%
17th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
11th
Created
1.6
14th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
22nd
Created
1.1
9th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
3rd
Created
0.4
26th