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TB logo

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2022 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-10
nfelo Rating
140525th
Point Diff / Game
-3.425th
Net EPA / Play
-0.06225th

2022 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
DAL logo
DAL@
W
19-03
+16
-2.5
W
38
2
NO logo
NO@
W
20-10
+10
-2.5
W
-2
3
GB logo
GB
L
12-14
-2
-1
L
-27
4
KC logo
KC
L
31-41
-10
-2
L
-0
5
ATL logo
ATL
W
21-15
+6
-10
L
-4
6
PIT logo
PIT@
L
18-20
-2
-9.5
L
-14
7
CAR logo
CAR@
L
03-21
-18
-13
L
-15
8
BAL logo
BAL
L
22-27
-5
-2
L
-18
9
LAR logo
LAR
W
16-13
+3
-3
P
-4
10
SEA logo
SEA
W
21-16
+5
-2.5
W
4
11BYE WEEK
12
CLE logo
CLE@
L
17-23
-6
-3
L
-10
13
NO logo
NO
W
17-16
+1
-3
L
-15
14
SF logo
SF@
L
07-35
-28
+3.5
L
-61
15
CIN logo
CIN
L
23-34
-11
+3.5
L
-5
16
ARI logo
ARI@
W
19-16
+3
-7.5
L
-11
17
CAR logo
CAR
W
30-24
+6
-3
W
18
18
ATL logo
ATL@
L
17-30
-13
+6
L
-84
19
DAL logo
DAL
L
14-31
-17
+2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.07
23rd
EPA / Pass
+0.03
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.21
32nd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.01
18th
EPA / Pass
+0.03
19th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
12th
Sack EPA
-2.50
3rd
Turnover EPA
-5.44
16th
Point Differential
-3.4
25th
Points For
18.2
25th
Points Against
21.6
15th
Total Yards
349.2
14th
Passing Yards
202.5
11th
Rushing Yards
75.6
32nd
Total Yards Allowed
330.1
10th
Passing Allowed
198.2
21st
Rushing Allowed
121.1
15th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
19th
4th Down
53%
12th
Red Zone
51%
24th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
8th
4th Down
62%
25th
Red Zone
65%
30th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
12th
Created
1.2
24th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
8th
Created
0.6
27th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
24th
Created
0.6
7th