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  4. 2023
TB logo

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
10-9
nfelo Rating
149018th
Point Diff / Game
+2.010th
Net EPA / Play
+0.03711th

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIN logo
MIN@
W
20-17
+3
+4
W
15
2
CHI logo
CHI
W
27-17
+10
-2.5
W
19
3
PHI logo
PHI
L
11-25
-14
+5.5
L
-16
4
NO logo
NO@
W
26-09
+17
+4.5
W
28
5BYE WEEK
6
DET logo
DET
L
06-20
-14
+3
L
-14
7
ATL logo
ATL
L
13-16
-3
-3
L
-6
8
BUF logo
BUF@
L
18-24
-6
+10
W
22
9
HOU logo
HOU@
L
37-39
-2
+2.5
W
6
10
TEN logo
TEN
W
20-06
+14
-2.5
W
9
11
SF logo
SF@
L
14-27
-13
+14
W
-6
12
IND logo
IND@
L
20-27
-7
+2.5
L
-10
13
CAR logo
CAR
W
21-18
+3
-4
L
-25
14
ATL logo
ATL@
W
29-25
+4
+1
W
20
15
GB logo
GB@
W
34-20
+14
+4
W
23
16
JAX logo
JAX
W
30-12
+18
+2.5
W
16
17
NO logo
NO
L
13-23
-10
-2.5
L
-9
18
CAR logo
CAR@
W
09-00
+9
-4.5
W
-3
19
PHI logo
PHI
W
32-09
+23
+2.5
W
18
20
DET logo
DET@
L
23-31
-8
+6
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.01
13th
EPA / Pass
+0.08
8th
EPA / Rush
-0.16
30th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.05
15th
EPA / Pass
+0.03
22nd
EPA / Rush
-0.11
6th
Sack EPA
-4.39
14th
Turnover EPA
-3.99
28th
Point Differential
+2.0
10th
Points For
21.2
18th
Points Against
19.2
5th
Total Yards
324.2
20th
Passing Yards
217.0
8th
Rushing Yards
90.4
31st
Total Yards Allowed
343.4
20th
Passing Allowed
249.7
31st
Rushing Allowed
93.7
4th

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
9th
4th Down
67%
2nd
Red Zone
48%
27th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
22nd
4th Down
46%
7th
Red Zone
45%
3rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
10th
Created
1.4
16th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
9th
Created
0.7
18th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
13th
Created
0.7
4th