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  4. 2025
TB logo

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-9
nfelo Rating
143920th
Point Diff / Game
-1.819th
Net EPA / Play
-0.02919th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ATL logo
ATL@
W
23-20
+3
-1.5
W
13
2
HOU logo
HOU@
W
20-19
+1
+2.5
W
6
3
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
29-27
+2
-6.5
L
-10
4
PHI logo
PHI
L
25-31
-6
+3.5
L
-9
5
SEA logo
SEA@
W
38-35
+3
+3.5
W
20
6
SF logo
SF
W
30-19
+11
-3.5
W
13
7
DET logo
DET@
L
09-24
-15
+6
L
-21
8
NO logo
NO@
W
23-03
+20
-3.5
W
1
9BYE WEEK
10
NE logo
NE
L
23-28
-5
-2.5
L
-8
11
BUF logo
BUF@
L
32-44
-12
+6.5
L
-4
12
LAR logo
LAR@
L
07-34
-27
+7
L
-26
13
ARI logo
ARI
W
20-17
+3
-4
L
-15
14
NO logo
NO
L
20-24
-4
-7.5
L
-14
15
ATL logo
ATL
L
28-29
-1
-6
L
-11
16
CAR logo
CAR@
L
20-23
-3
-3
L
-5
17
MIA logo
MIA@
L
17-20
-3
-5.5
L
-3
18
CAR logo
CAR
W
16-14
+2
-3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.00
21st
EPA / Pass
-0.03
23rd
EPA / Rush
+0.00
9th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.03
14th
EPA / Pass
+0.07
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
5th
Sack EPA
-4.09
19th
Turnover EPA
-3.82
26th
Point Differential
-1.8
19th
Points For
22.4
18th
Points Against
24.2
20th
Total Yards
320.6
21st
Passing Yards
198.9
9th
Rushing Yards
114.5
19th
Total Yards Allowed
337.2
20th
Passing Allowed
183.8
19th
Rushing Allowed
99.1
6th

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
9th
4th Down
45%
27th
Red Zone
54%
24th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
15th
4th Down
47%
6th
Red Zone
70%
32nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.0
9th
Created
1.3
9th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
12th
Created
0.8
13th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
6th
Created
0.5
11th