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  4. 2025
TB logo

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-6
nfelo Rating
145820th
Point Diff / Game
-2.020th
Net EPA / Play
-0.03220th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ATL logo
ATL@
W
23-20
+3
-1.5
W
11
2
HOU logo
HOU@
W
20-19
+1
+2.5
W
6
3
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
29-27
+2
-6.5
L
-10
4
PHI logo
PHI
L
25-31
-6
+3.5
L
-9
5
SEA logo
SEA@
W
38-35
+3
+3.5
W
20
6
SF logo
SF
W
30-19
+11
-3.5
W
13
7
DET logo
DET@
L
09-24
-15
+6
L
-21
8
NO logo
NO@
W
23-03
+20
-3.5
W
0
9BYE WEEK
10
NE logo
NE
L
23-28
-5
-2.5
L
-8
11
BUF logo
BUF@
L
32-44
-12
+6.5
L
-4
12
LAR logo
LAR@
L
07-34
-27
+7
L
-26
13
ARI logo
ARI
W
20-17
+3
-4
L
-15
14
NO logo
NO
L
20-24
-4
-7.5
L
-14
15
ATL logo
ATL
12/11
-
-4.5
-
-
16
CAR logo
CAR@
12/21
-
-
-
17
MIA logo
MIA@
12/28
-
-
-
18
CAR logo
CAR
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.03
23rd
EPA / Pass
-0.07
25th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
10th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.00
12th
EPA / Pass
+0.03
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
3rd
Sack EPA
-3.88
18th
Turnover EPA
-3.30
27th
Point Differential
-2.0
20th
Points For
23.0
17th
Points Against
25.0
23rd
Total Yards
315.2
22nd
Passing Yards
190.6
12th
Rushing Yards
115.2
20th
Total Yards Allowed
338.4
21st
Passing Allowed
187.2
14th
Rushing Allowed
100.6
8th

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
19th
4th Down
41%
29th
Red Zone
50%
25th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
20th
4th Down
41%
5th
Red Zone
69%
30th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.8
4th
Created
1.4
8th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
4th
Created
0.9
7th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
8th
Created
0.5
15th