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  4. 2009
WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2009 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-12
nfelo Rating
142224th
Point Diff / Game
-4.424th
Net EPA / Play
-0.07323rd

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NYG logo
NYG@
L
17-23
-6
+6.5
W
1
2
LAR logo
LAR
W
09-07
+2
-9.5
L
-26
3
DET logo
DET@
L
14-19
-5
-6
L
-3
4
TB logo
TB
W
16-13
+3
-9
L
-16
5
CAR logo
CAR@
L
17-20
-3
+5
W
-1
6
KC logo
KC
L
06-14
-8
-6
L
-26
7
PHI logo
PHI
L
17-27
-10
+8.5
L
-25
8BYE WEEK
9
ATL logo
ATL@
L
17-31
-14
+9
L
-14
10
DEN logo
DEN
W
27-17
+10
+3.5
W
12
11
DAL logo
DAL@
L
06-07
-1
+11
W
14
12
PHI logo
PHI@
L
24-27
-3
+10
W
12
13
NO logo
NO
L
30-33
-3
+9
W
23
14
OAK logo
OAK@
W
34-13
+21
-2
W
24
15
NYG logo
NYG
L
12-45
-33
+3
L
-23
16
DAL logo
DAL
L
00-17
-17
+7
L
-25
17
LAC logo
LAC@
L
20-23
-3
+3
P
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.06
21st
EPA / Pass
-0.02
18th
EPA / Rush
-0.12
23rd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
20th
EPA / Pass
+0.11
25th
EPA / Rush
-0.16
4th
Sack EPA
-4.96
29th
Turnover EPA
-6.22
24th
Point Differential
-4.4
24th
Points For
16.6
26th
Points Against
21.0
17th
Total Yards
313.0
22nd
Passing Yards
195.8
14th
Rushing Yards
94.3
28th
Total Yards Allowed
319.9
11th
Passing Allowed
207.5
27th
Rushing Allowed
112.4
15th

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
16th
4th Down
32%
30th
Red Zone
57%
8th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
21st
4th Down
24%
1st
Red Zone
37%
1st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
7th
Created
1.4
26th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.0
16th
Created
0.7
26th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
4th
Created
0.7
16th