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WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2014 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-12
nfelo Rating
139227th
Point Diff / Game
-8.629th
Net EPA / Play
-0.15028th

2014 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
HOU logo
HOU@
L
06-17
-11
+3
L
-9
2
JAX logo
JAX
W
41-10
+31
-5
W
-42
3
PHI logo
PHI@
L
34-37
-3
+4
W
50
4
NYG logo
NYG
L
14-45
-31
-3
L
-18
5
SEA logo
SEA
L
17-27
-10
+7
L
9
6
ARI logo
ARI@
L
20-30
-10
+5.5
L
4
7
TEN logo
TEN
W
19-17
+2
-6
L
-36
8
DAL logo
DAL@
W
20-17
+3
+9.5
W
60
9
MIN logo
MIN@
L
26-29
-3
3
10BYE WEEK
11
TB logo
TB
L
07-27
-20
-7
L
-18
12
SF logo
SF@
L
13-17
-4
+9.5
W
-5
13
IND logo
IND@
L
27-49
-22
+8.5
L
1
14
LAR logo
LAR
L
00-24
-24
+3
L
-51
15
NYG logo
NYG@
L
13-24
-11
+7
L
-3
16
PHI logo
PHI
W
27-24
+3
+7
W
5
17
DAL logo
DAL
L
17-44
-27
+6
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.08
23rd
EPA / Pass
-0.08
25th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
18th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.07
31st
EPA / Pass
+0.24
32nd
EPA / Rush
-0.12
9th
Sack EPA
-7.05
32nd
Turnover EPA
-8.10
7th
Point Differential
-8.6
29th
Points For
18.8
26th
Points Against
27.4
29th
Total Yards
358.6
13th
Passing Yards
226.3
9th
Rushing Yards
105.7
18th
Total Yards Allowed
357.3
19th
Passing Allowed
197.6
16th
Rushing Allowed
107.8
12th

Conversions For

3rd Down
31%
30th
4th Down
25%
32nd
Red Zone
46%
27th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
24th
4th Down
56%
24th
Red Zone
52%
15th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
2.1
31st
Created
1.0
29th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
26th
Created
0.4
28th

Fumbles

Lost
1.0
32nd
Created
0.6
16th