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  4. 2019
WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2019 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
3-13
nfelo Rating
132930th
Point Diff / Game
-10.631st
Net EPA / Play
-0.20831st

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PHI logo
PHI@
L
27-32
-5
+10
W
13
2
DAL logo
DAL
L
21-31
-10
+6
L
-22
3
CHI logo
CHI
L
15-31
-16
+5
L
-26
4
NYG logo
NYG@
L
03-24
-21
+3
L
-60
5
NE logo
NE
L
07-33
-26
+16.5
L
-1
6
MIA logo
MIA@
W
17-16
+1
-6
L
-3
7
SF logo
SF
L
00-09
-9
+10
W
-23
8
MIN logo
MIN@
L
09-19
-10
+16.5
W
-6
9
BUF logo
BUF@
L
09-24
-15
+10.5
L
-11
10BYE WEEK
11
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
17-34
-17
-1.5
L
-18
12
DET logo
DET
W
19-16
+3
+4
W
2
13
CAR logo
CAR@
W
29-21
+8
+10.5
W
11
14
GB logo
GB@
L
15-20
-5
+13
W
19
15
PHI logo
PHI
L
27-37
-10
+6.5
L
11
16
NYG logo
NYG
L
35-41
-6
+1
L
24
17
DAL logo
DAL@
L
16-47
-31
+12.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.15
30th
EPA / Pass
-0.18
32nd
EPA / Rush
-0.11
24th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.06
29th
EPA / Pass
+0.18
27th
EPA / Rush
-0.00
26th
Sack EPA
-6.35
30th
Turnover EPA
-6.63
11th
Point Differential
-10.6
31st
Points For
16.6
32nd
Points Against
27.2
27th
Total Yards
274.8
31st
Passing Yards
165.5
27th
Rushing Yards
98.9
23rd
Total Yards Allowed
385.3
27th
Passing Allowed
224.9
23rd
Rushing Allowed
146.3
31st

Conversions For

3rd Down
29%
32nd
4th Down
43%
21st
Red Zone
48%
27th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
49%
32nd
4th Down
63%
30th
Red Zone
61%
24th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
16th
Created
1.4
14th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
19th
Created
0.8
13th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
10th
Created
0.6
14th