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  4. 2022
WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2022 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-8-1
nfelo Rating
137126th
Point Diff / Game
-1.320th
Net EPA / Play
-0.01515th

2022 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
JAX logo
JAX
W
28-22
+6
-3
W
9
2
DET logo
DET@
L
27-36
-9
-6
3
PHI logo
PHI
L
08-24
-16
+6.5
L
-46
4
DAL logo
DAL@
L
10-25
-15
+3
L
-19
5
TEN logo
TEN
L
17-21
-4
5
6
CHI logo
CHI@
W
12-07
+5
-1
W
-7
7
GB logo
GB
W
23-21
+2
+4
W
10
8
IND logo
IND@
W
17-16
+1
+3
W
13
9
MIN logo
MIN
L
17-20
-3
+3
P
-6
10
PHI logo
PHI@
W
32-21
+11
+11
W
9
11
HOU logo
HOU@
W
23-10
+13
-3
W
14
12
ATL logo
ATL
W
19-13
+6
-3.5
W
4
13
NYG logo
NYG@
T
20-20
0
-2.5
L
11
14BYE WEEK
15
NYG logo
NYG
L
12-20
-8
-4.5
L
-6
16
SF logo
SF@
L
20-37
-17
+6.5
L
-10
17
CLE logo
CLE
L
10-24
-14
-1
L
-63
18
DAL logo
DAL
W
26-06
+20
+7.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.07
22nd
EPA / Pass
-0.11
25th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
21st
Def. EPA / Play
-0.05
8th
EPA / Pass
-0.07
8th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
3rd
Sack EPA
-5.69
29th
Turnover EPA
-5.00
21st
Point Differential
-1.3
20th
Points For
18.9
24th
Points Against
20.2
8th
Total Yards
330.5
20th
Passing Yards
185.1
16th
Rushing Yards
126.1
12th
Total Yards Allowed
304.6
3rd
Passing Allowed
170.5
10th
Rushing Allowed
113.3
11th

Conversions For

3rd Down
35%
25th
4th Down
48%
21st
Red Zone
51%
23rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
32%
1st
4th Down
48%
14th
Red Zone
52%
9th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
28th
Created
0.9
30th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
25th
Created
0.5
29th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
20th
Created
0.4
29th