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  4. 2025
WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
3-10
nfelo Rating
138927th
Point Diff / Game
-7.127th
Net EPA / Play
-0.14128th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NYG logo
NYG
W
21-06
+15
-6
W
8
2
GB logo
GB@
L
18-27
-9
+3
L
-70
3
OAK logo
OAK
W
41-24
+17
-2.5
W
19
4
ATL logo
ATL@
L
27-34
-7
+2.5
L
30
5
LAC logo
LAC@
W
27-10
+17
+3
W
13
6
CHI logo
CHI
L
24-25
-1
-5.5
L
-4
7
DAL logo
DAL@
L
22-44
-22
+1.5
L
-81
8
KC logo
KC@
L
07-28
-21
+10.5
L
43
9
SEA logo
SEA
L
14-38
-24
+2.5
L
-63
10
DET logo
DET
L
22-44
-22
+8
L
-36
11
MIA logo
MIA@
L
13-16
-3
+2.5
L
-19
12BYE WEEK
13
DEN logo
DEN
L
26-27
-1
+6
W
18
14
MIN logo
MIN@
L
00-31
-31
-1
L
-23
15
NYG logo
NYG@
12/14
-
+2.5
-
-
16
PHI logo
PHI
12/19
-
-
-
17
DAL logo
DAL
12/25
-
-
-
18
PHI logo
PHI@
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.03
17th
EPA / Pass
-0.02
19th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
6th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.17
32nd
EPA / Pass
+0.26
32nd
EPA / Rush
+0.02
25th
Sack EPA
-3.65
16th
Turnover EPA
-6.77
4th
Point Differential
-7.1
27th
Points For
20.2
24th
Points Against
27.2
28th
Total Yards
327.8
18th
Passing Yards
191.2
11th
Rushing Yards
136.5
4th
Total Yards Allowed
382.8
30th
Passing Allowed
197.1
25th
Rushing Allowed
135.7
29th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
16th
4th Down
58%
14th
Red Zone
66%
5th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
25th
4th Down
63%
23rd
Red Zone
64%
28th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
17th
Created
0.6
30th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
18th
Created
0.5
26th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
20th
Created
0.2
29th