SF49ers
-
10
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
019
CHIBears
-
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
3
0
10
Bears
0
0
7
12
19
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
204
Total Plays
67
56
Yards / Play
4.9
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.14
Passing Yards
155
105
Comp/Att
13/28(46%)
8/17(47%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.10
Rushing Yards
176
99
Rush Attempts
37
37
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
5
4
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.46
-3.37
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-16
Sack EPA
-3.56
-4.43
Penalties
12
3
Penalty Yards
99
24
Penalty EPA
-14.54
-3.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model66.3%
Spread Pick
Bears+6.5
Expected Value
+2.9%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-80
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
+5.2
Final Difference
-117.2
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
T. Lance
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
Value
Ptile
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
32
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31
EPA
EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
2
32
EPA / Rush
23
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
4
Interceptions / Game
3
13
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
32
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
19
27
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
1
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
32
19
Rushing Yards / Game
1
2
EPA
EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
27
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
20
19
Turnover EPA / Game
25
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
16
RZ Efficiency
13
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U