SF49ers
3-8
26
TBD
Soldier Field
50°F
5 mph
20
CHIBears
5-6
TBD
Soldier Field
50°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
49ers
0
7
0
7
6
20
Bears
6
7
0
7
0
20
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
364
Total Plays
59
74
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.15
Passing Yards
170
194
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.29
Rushing Yards
121
170
Rush Attempts
23
42
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
44%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.39
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-8
Sack EPA
-5.68
-2.00
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
50
72
Penalty EPA
-4.41
-4.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+83.2
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.9
Net QB Adjustment
+96.7
Home QB Adjustment
+19.4
Away QB Adjustment
-77.3
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-77.3
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
20
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22
EPA
EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
29
22
EPA / Rush
9
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
1
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
31
22
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
17
Yards / Game
19
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
1
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29
EPA
EPA / Play
14
27
EPA / Pass
17
29
EPA / Rush
10
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
21
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
18
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
27
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U