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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ bears week 13, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
3-8
26
TBD
Soldier Field
50°F
5 mph
20
CHIBears
5-6
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
50°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
49ers
0
7
0
7
6
20
Bears
6
7
0
7
0
20

Spread

SF logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
291
364
Total Plays
59
74
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.15
Passing Yards
170
194
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.29
Rushing Yards
121
170
Rush Attempts
23
42
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
44%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.39
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-8
Sack EPA
-5.68
-2.00
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
50
72
Penalty EPA
-4.41
-4.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+83.2
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.9
Net QB Adjustment
+96.7
Home QB Adjustment
+19.4
Away QB Adjustment
-77.3
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-77.3
Value
Ptile
10/28
0.8
55
11/04
-0.2
48
11/08
-5.3
16
11/18
-4.1
24
09/08
-14.5
0
09/29
-11.1
2
10/06
-6.8
11
11/08
-0.9
45
11/22
2.7
70
11/29
2.5
68
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
Value
Ptile
09/13
-1.9
36
09/20
-0.9
45
10/04
-0.6
47
10/11
1.4
61
10/18
2.6
69
11/01
3.7
77
11/09
3.1
74
11/15
7.1
91
11/22
-1.0
44
11/26
-0.1
50

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
49ers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
32
20
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22

EPA

EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
29
22
EPA / Rush
9
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
1
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
31
22
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Bears logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
17
Yards / Game
19
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
1
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29

EPA

EPA / Play
14
27
EPA / Pass
17
29
EPA / Rush
10
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
21
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
18
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
27
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-25
L
L
O
09/27
-40
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/11
-3
L
W
O
10/18
5
W
W
O
10/22
-17
L
L
U
11/01
-21
L
L
U
11/08
1
W
W
U
11/22
-16
L
L
O
11/29
-6
L
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-25
L
L
O
09/27
-26
L
L
U
10/04
2
W
W
U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-3
L
W
O
11/01
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
U
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/22
-2
L
W
U
11/26
4
W
W
U