SF49ers
1-10
6
TBD
Soldier Field
33°F
5 mph
26
CHIBears
2-9
TBD
Soldier Field
33°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
6
0
0
6
Bears
0
7
14
3
24
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
147
326
Total Plays
55
59
Yards / Play
2.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.05
Passing Yards
6
184
Comp/Att
5/15(33%)
11/18(61%)
Yards / Pass
0.4
10.2
EPA / Pass
-1.06
+0.47
Rushing Yards
141
142
Rush Attempts
34
40
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
19
Passing 1st downs
2
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.65
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-33
-8
Sack EPA
-9.02
-1.75
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
106
40
Penalty EPA
-5.25
-3.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model46.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,363
Home Field
+77.7
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-87.3
Home QB Adjustment
-61.0
Away QB Adjustment
+26.3
Market Regression
-18.9
Final Difference
23.7
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.3
M. Barkley
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-61.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
2
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
30
24
EPA / Rush
10
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
29
30
Turnover EPA / Game
9
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
28
RZ Efficiency
4
10
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
32
Yards / Game
14
32
Passing Yards / Game
17
27
Rushing Yards / Game
16
32
EPA
EPA / Play
26
29
EPA / Pass
22
29
EPA / Rush
22
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
3
Interceptions / Game
28
22
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
22
RZ Efficiency
22
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U