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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ bears week 13, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
1-10
6
TBD
Soldier Field
33°F
5 mph
26
CHIBears
2-9
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
33°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
6
0
0
6
Bears
0
7
14
3
24

Spread

CHI logo
+1

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
147
326
Total Plays
55
59
Yards / Play
2.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.05
Passing Yards
6
184
Comp/Att
5/15(33%)
11/18(61%)
Yards / Pass
0.4
10.2
EPA / Pass
-1.06
+0.47
Rushing Yards
141
142
Rush Attempts
34
40
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
10
19
Passing 1st downs
2
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.65
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-33
-8
Sack EPA
-9.02
-1.75
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
106
40
Penalty EPA
-5.25
-3.98

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model46.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,361
Home Field
+78.7
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
-87.3
Home QB Adjustment
-61.0
Away QB Adjustment
+26.3
Market Regression
-18.5
Final Difference
24.1
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.3
Value
Ptile
10/11
3.7
77
10/18
2.3
66
10/22
-9.7
2
11/01
-5.8
12
10/16
-0.1
47
10/23
-4.0
19
11/06
4.5
81
11/13
2.8
71
11/20
-2.6
29
11/27
10.8
98
M. Barkley headshot

M. Barkley

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-61.0
Value
Ptile
11/27
-0.0
48

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
49ers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
2
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26

EPA

EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
30
24
EPA / Rush
10
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
29
30
Turnover EPA / Game
9
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
28
RZ Efficiency
4
10
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Bears logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
32
Yards / Game
14
32
Passing Yards / Game
17
27
Rushing Yards / Game
16
32

EPA

EPA / Play
26
29
EPA / Pass
22
29
EPA / Rush
22
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
3
Interceptions / Game
28
22
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
22
RZ Efficiency
22
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-19
L
L
O
09/25
-19
L
L
O
10/02
-7
L
L
U
10/06
-12
L
L
O
10/16
-29
L
L
O
10/23
-17
L
L
O
11/06
-18
L
L
O
11/13
-3
L
W
U
11/20
-13
L
L
U
11/27
-7
L
P
O
CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-15
L
L
O
09/25
-14
L
L
O
10/02
3
W
W
U
10/09
-6
L
L
O
10/16
-1
L
L
U
10/20
-16
L
L
U
10/31
10
W
W
U
11/13
-26
L
L
O
11/20
-6
L
W
U
11/27
-6
L
W
O