nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ bears week 13, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

SF logo
SF49ers
1-10
15
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
6 mph
14
CHIBears
3-8
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
6
3
3
15
Bears
7
1
0
0
8

Spread

SF logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
388
147
Total Plays
73
36
Yards / Play
5.3
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.15
Passing Yards
278
85
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
12/15(80%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.03
Rushing Yards
110
62
Rush Attempts
34
19
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
23
8
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
56%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.21
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-17
Sack EPA
-3.19
-4.62
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
53
29
Penalty EPA
-6.03
-2.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,405
Away nfelo
1,366
Home Field
+76.5
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+16.9
Market Regression
-73.4
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
09/11
2.6
69
09/18
5.6
85
M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Value
Ptile
10/09
-4.1
24
10/15
-4.0
25
10/22
-8.2
7
10/29
-4.6
21
11/12
-3.2
30
11/19
1.9
66
11/26
-8.2
7

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
49ers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
19
8
Yards / Game
12
7
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10

EPA

EPA / Play
16
11
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
9
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
16
Interceptions / Game
23
29
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
20
4th Down Efficiency
19
22
RZ Efficiency
28
10
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Bears logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
25
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
22

EPA

EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
17
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
15
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
23
32
RZ Efficiency
5
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
-3
L
W
U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
10/01
-3
L
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-2
L
W
O
10/22
-30
L
L
O
10/29
-23
L
L
U
11/05
-10
L
L
U
11/12
10
W
W
O
11/26
-11
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
-22
L
L
U
09/24
6
W
W
U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/09
-3
L
W
U
10/15
3
W
W
O
10/22
14
W
W
U
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/12
-7
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
P
O
11/26
-28
L
L
U