SF49ers
1-10
15
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
6 mph
14
CHIBears
3-8
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
6
3
3
15
Bears
7
1
0
0
8
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
147
Total Plays
73
36
Yards / Play
5.3
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.15
Passing Yards
278
85
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
12/15(80%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.03
Rushing Yards
110
62
Rush Attempts
34
19
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
8
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
56%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.21
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-17
Sack EPA
-3.19
-4.62
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
53
29
Penalty EPA
-6.03
-2.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+96
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,369
Home Field
+75.6
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+19.9
Net QB Adjustment
-16.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+16.9
Market Regression
-73.4
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
8
Yards / Game
12
7
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10
EPA
EPA / Play
16
11
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
16
Interceptions / Game
23
29
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
20
4th Down Efficiency
19
22
RZ Efficiency
28
10
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
25
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
22
EPA
EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
17
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
15
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
23
32
RZ Efficiency
5
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U