SF49ers
1-1
10
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
011
DENBroncos
1-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
0
0
3
10
Broncos
0
3
0
6
9
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
261
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
5.1
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.27
Passing Yards
179
160
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.35
Rushing Yards
88
101
Rush Attempts
19
33
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
14
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
10%
32%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
19
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.02
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-32
-24
Sack EPA
-5.48
-6.34
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
40
30
Penalty EPA
-5.18
-2.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-78
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.8
Net QB Adjustment
-17.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
+7.7
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10
EPA
EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
2
7
EPA / Rush
23
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
1
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
26
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Broncos Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
19
Rushing Yards / Game
21
2
EPA
EPA / Play
28
1
EPA / Pass
29
2
EPA / Rush
27
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
16
RZ Efficiency
14
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U