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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ browns week 6, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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SF logo
SF49ers
5-0
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
53°F
15 mph
19
CLEBrowns
2-2
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
53°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
0
7
17
Browns
0
7
6
6
19

Spread

CLE logo
+9.5

Total

PUSH
36
P

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
215
334
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
3.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.20
Passing Yards
107
174
Comp/Att
12/27(44%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.42
Rushing Yards
108
160
Rush Attempts
25
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
5
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
25%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.78
-12.48
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-18
Sack EPA
-3.85
-2.94
Penalties
12
13
Penalty Yards
105
119
Penalty EPA
-8.80
-9.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market79.1%
Model77.1%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-179
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,709
Home Field
+78.7
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.2
Net QB Adjustment
-96.6
Home QB Adjustment
-75.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.3
Market Regression
-82.2
Final Difference
-211.3
Model Spread
+8.5

Quarterbacks

B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Value
Ptile
01/01
0.7
57
01/08
-0.9
46
01/14
9.7
96
01/22
-0.3
50
01/29
-3.9
24
09/10
1.8
62
09/17
1.8
62
09/21
3.6
74
10/01
6.3
88
10/08
8.1
94
P. Walker headshot

P. Walker

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-75.3
Value
Ptile
11/22
-4.0
19
11/14
-1.9
39
10/16
-6.0
13
10/23
2.3
71
10/30
-1.6
42
11/06
-10.5
1
11/10
-6.0
13

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Browns Defense
49ers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
1
2
Rushing Yards / Game
4
10

EPA

EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
1
1
EPA / Rush
5
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
1
RZ Efficiency
1
32
Browns Offense vs 49ers Defense
Browns logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
4
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
5
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5

EPA

EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
28
8
EPA / Rush
23
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
27
Interceptions / Game
32
2
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
15
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/08
25
W
W
O
01/14
18
W
W
O
01/22
7
W
W
U
01/29
-24
L
L
U
09/10
23
W
W
U
09/17
7
W
L
O
09/21
18
W
W
U
10/01
19
W
W
O
10/08
32
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
13
W
W
U
12/11
-13
L
L
U
12/17
10
W
W
U
12/24
-7
L
L
U
01/01
14
W
W
U
01/08
-14
L
L
O
09/10
21
W
W
U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/24
24
W
W
U
10/01
-25
L
L
U