SF49ers
5-0
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
53°F
15 mph
19
CLEBrowns
2-2
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
53°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
0
7
17
Browns
0
7
6
6
19
Spread
+9.5
Total
PUSH
36
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
215
334
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
3.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.20
Passing Yards
107
174
Comp/Att
12/27(44%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.42
Rushing Yards
108
160
Rush Attempts
25
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
5
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
25%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.78
-12.48
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-18
Sack EPA
-3.85
-2.94
Penalties
12
13
Penalty Yards
105
119
Penalty EPA
-8.80
-9.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model77.0%
Spread Pick
Browns+9.5
Expected Value
+1.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-176
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,709
Home Field
+78.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.2
Net QB Adjustment
-96.6
Home QB Adjustment
-75.4
Away QB Adjustment
+21.2
Market Regression
-82.6
Final Difference
-210.3
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
P. Walker
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-75.4
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
1
2
Rushing Yards / Game
4
10
EPA
EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
1
1
EPA / Rush
5
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
1
RZ Efficiency
1
32
Browns Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
4
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
5
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
28
8
EPA / Rush
23
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
27
Interceptions / Game
32
2
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
15
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U