SF49ers
4-8
10
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
63°F
11 mph
24
CLEBrowns
2-10
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
63°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
0
7
10
Browns
7
3
7
7
24
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
221
481
Total Plays
54
74
Yards / Play
4.1
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.03
Passing Yards
150
251
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.21
Rushing Yards
71
230
Rush Attempts
17
41
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
28
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
15%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.41
Sacks
9
2
Sack Yards
-44
-19
Sack EPA
-14.50
-2.95
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
40
71
Penalty EPA
-6.59
-7.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,336
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+92.7
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+32.4
Net QB Adjustment
+48.8
Home QB Adjustment
-16.1
Away QB Adjustment
-64.8
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-64.8
J. Manziel
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
29
Yards / Game
31
28
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30
EPA
EPA / Play
30
29
EPA / Pass
29
30
EPA / Rush
9
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
21
27
RZ Efficiency
31
20
Browns Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
17
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
12
1
Rushing Yards / Game
22
29
EPA
EPA / Play
29
27
EPA / Pass
28
29
EPA / Rush
18
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
2
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
32
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U