SF49ers
-
31
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
93°F
9 mph
17
TBBuccaneers
-
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
93°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
3
8
5
19
Buccaneers
0
1
7
3
11
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
258
295
Total Plays
61
65
Yards / Play
4.2
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.39
Passing Yards
160
174
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.71
Rushing Yards
98
121
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
38%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.62
-22.31
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-20
Sack EPA
-1.43
-4.08
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
87
87
Penalty EPA
-10.55
-12.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model51.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+37.2
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-20.7
Net QB Adjustment
+1.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
+8.7
Final Difference
8.7
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
8
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
31
Rushing Yards / Game
2
1
EPA
EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
5
7
EPA / Rush
8
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
26
2
Turnover EPA / Game
13
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
4
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
19
5
Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
7
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
1
2
Rushing Yards / Game
24
12
EPA
EPA / Play
19
3
EPA / Pass
14
2
EPA / Rush
26
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
22
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
11
8
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U