SF49ers
2-8
9
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
7 mph
27
TBBuccaneers
3-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
6
3
0
9
Buccaneers
7
6
7
7
27
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
412
Total Plays
60
70
Yards / Play
5.7
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.18
Passing Yards
194
304
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.43
Rushing Yards
148
108
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
6.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
13%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.29
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-8
Sack EPA
-4.31
-1.69
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
68
70
Penalty EPA
-6.78
-7.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,472
Home Field
+43.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.8
Net QB Adjustment
+88.0
Home QB Adjustment
-10.1
Away QB Adjustment
-98.1
Market Regression
-59.5
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-98.1
Value
Ptile
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
31
Yards / Game
14
27
Passing Yards / Game
16
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
24
EPA
EPA / Play
21
31
EPA / Pass
20
31
EPA / Rush
28
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
30
26
Fumbles / Game
25
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
28
Yards / Game
2
13
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
28
13
EPA
EPA / Play
12
26
EPA / Pass
9
28
EPA / Rush
26
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
9
Interceptions / Game
32
32
Fumbles / Game
25
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
21
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
15
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
8-2
O/U