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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ buccaneers week 12, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
2-8
9
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
7 mph
27
TBBuccaneers
3-7
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
6
3
0
9
Buccaneers
7
6
7
7
27

Spread

TB logo
-2

Total

UNDER
54.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
342
412
Total Plays
60
70
Yards / Play
5.7
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.18
Passing Yards
194
304
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.43
Rushing Yards
148
108
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
6.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
13%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.29
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-8
Sack EPA
-4.31
-1.69
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
68
70
Penalty EPA
-6.78
-7.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+44.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.1
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.1
Net QB Adjustment
+88.0
Home QB Adjustment
-10.1
Away QB Adjustment
-98.1
Market Regression
-59.5
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

N. Mullens headshot

N. Mullens

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-98.1
Value
Ptile
11/01
4.6
78
11/12
-1.0
39
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
Value
Ptile
10/29
-7.3
11
11/05
-6.4
14
12/03
-2.9
33
12/10
-1.4
43
12/18
7.3
91
12/24
1.4
62
12/31
0.7
57
10/14
7.2
91
10/21
1.0
53
10/28
-11.8
2

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
31
Yards / Game
14
27
Passing Yards / Game
16
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
24

EPA

EPA / Play
21
31
EPA / Pass
20
31
EPA / Rush
28
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
30
26
Fumbles / Game
25
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Buccaneers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
28
Yards / Game
2
13
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
28
13

EPA

EPA / Play
12
26
EPA / Pass
9
28
EPA / Rush
26
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
9
Interceptions / Game
32
32
Fumbles / Game
25
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
21
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
15
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-8
L
L
U
09/16
3
W
L
O
09/23
-11
L
L
O
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-10
L
L
O
10/15
-3
L
W
O
10/21
-29
L
L
U
10/28
-3
L
L
U
11/01
31
W
W
U
11/12
-4
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
8
W
W
O
09/16
6
W
W
O
09/24
-3
L
L
O
09/30
-38
L
L
O
10/14
-5
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
L
U
10/28
-3
L
W
O
11/04
-14
L
L
O
11/11
-13
L
L
U
11/18
-3
L
P
O