SF49ers
1-1
14
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
023
ARICardinals
2-0
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
7
0
0
14
Cardinals
3
3
14
3
23
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
338
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
5.2
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.19
Passing Yards
236
--
Comp/Att
29/37(78%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.31
Rushing Yards
82
84
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
7
3rd Down %
50%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.39
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-1.33
--
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
107
36
Penalty EPA
-12.03
-4.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-91
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-42.6
Home QB Adjustment
-42.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
D. Stanton
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-42.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
17
EPA
EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
20
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
4
9
Fumbles / Game
19
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
29
3
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
28
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7
EPA
EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
31
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
3
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
5
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
28
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Cardinals
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U