SF49ers
1-1
7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
047
ARICardinals
2-0
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
0
0
7
Cardinals
2
17
7
7
33
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
156
446
Total Plays
50
70
Yards / Play
3.1
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.58
+0.18
Passing Yards
53
307
Comp/Att
9/19(47%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
9.6
EPA / Pass
-1.26
+0.35
Rushing Yards
103
139
Rush Attempts
29
37
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
28
Passing 1st downs
3
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-19.62
-2.55
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-4
Sack EPA
-3.28
-2.37
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
45
24
Penalty EPA
-6.28
-2.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
49ers+7.0
Expected Value
+9.2%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+16.9
Home QB Adjustment
+21.4
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
+5.2
Final Difference
119.8
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
13
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8
EPA
EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
9
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
27
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
21
12
RZ Efficiency
31
15
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
17
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29
EPA
EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
11
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
2
Interceptions / Game
23
26
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
10
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U