nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ cardinals week 3, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

SF logo
SF49ers
1-1
7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
47
ARICardinals
2-0
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
0
0
7
Cardinals
2
17
7
7
33

Spread

ARI logo
-7

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
156
446
Total Plays
50
70
Yards / Play
3.1
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.58
+0.18
Passing Yards
53
307
Comp/Att
9/19(47%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
9.6
EPA / Pass
-1.26
+0.35
Rushing Yards
103
139
Rush Attempts
29
37
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
10
28
Passing 1st downs
3
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-19.62
-2.55
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-4
Sack EPA
-3.28
-2.37
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
45
24
Penalty EPA
-6.28
-2.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model66.2%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.2%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+16.9
Home QB Adjustment
+21.4
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
+5.1
Final Difference
116.8
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Value
Ptile
11/09
-4.5
23
11/16
-1.0
43
11/23
-1.4
40
11/27
-9.9
4
12/07
-9.3
5
12/14
-5.2
19
12/20
9.0
94
12/28
4.7
81
09/14
-0.2
49
09/20
5.0
82
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
Value
Ptile
12/22
-8.9
5
12/29
5.0
83
09/08
5.3
83
10/12
2.1
66
10/19
1.1
58
10/26
3.0
71
11/02
0.6
54
11/09
-4.0
26
09/13
6.9
90
09/20
2.9
72

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
13
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8

EPA

EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
9
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
27
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
21
12
RZ Efficiency
31
15
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
17
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29

EPA

EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
11
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
2
Interceptions / Game
23
26
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
10
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
3
W
W
O
11/16
6
W
W
U
11/23
4
W
L
U
11/27
-16
L
L
U
12/07
-11
L
L
U
12/14
-10
L
P
U
12/20
-3
L
L
O
12/28
3
W
L
U
09/14
17
W
W
U
09/20
-25
L
L
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
8
W
W
U
11/23
-16
L
L
U
11/30
-11
L
L
O
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/11
6
W
W
U
12/21
-29
L
L
O
12/28
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-11
L
L
O
09/13
12
W
W
O
09/20
25
W
W
O