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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ cardinals week 8, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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SF logo
SF49ers
5-2
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
3
ARICardinals
4-3
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
10
7
0
24
Cardinals
0
0
3
0
3

Spread

SF logo
-7

Total

UNDER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
317
265
Total Plays
52
65
Yards / Play
6.1
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.22
Passing Yards
204
258
Comp/Att
18/19(95%)
32/52(62%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.71
-0.11
Rushing Yards
113
7
Rush Attempts
29
9
Yards / Rush
3.9
0.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.65
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
15
16
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.11
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-28
-32
Sack EPA
-6.22
-5.21
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
80
51
Penalty EPA
-6.44
-4.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-213
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-20.2
Home QB Adjustment
-21.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Value
Ptile
01/01
1.9
66
01/14
5.7
85
01/22
0.1
53
09/09
0.9
56
09/16
0.5
53
09/23
-1.5
39
09/30
-2.9
31
10/07
11.7
98
10/14
-9.6
3
10/18
-3.0
30
J. Skelton headshot

J. Skelton

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-21.8
Value
Ptile
01/02
-8.0
7
11/06
1.0
60
11/13
-0.8
46
11/20
-12.0
1
11/27
-8.7
4
12/18
-0.6
47
12/24
-6.8
10
01/01
0.2
54
09/09
-5.1
19
10/21
-5.7
14

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
5
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28

EPA

EPA / Play
5
2
EPA / Pass
7
2
EPA / Rush
1
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
2
2
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3

EPA

EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
32
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
12
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
31
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
7
W
L
O
01/14
4
W
W
O
01/22
-3
L
L
U
09/09
8
W
W
O
09/16
8
W
W
P
09/23
-11
L
L
U
09/30
34
W
W
U
10/07
42
W
W
O
10/14
-23
L
L
U
10/18
7
W
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
3
W
L
P
12/24
-7
L
L
U
01/01
3
W
W
O
09/09
4
W
W
U
09/16
2
W
W
U
09/23
21
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
L
U
10/21
-7
L
P
U