SF49ers
5-2
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
03
ARICardinals
4-3
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
10
7
0
24
Cardinals
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
265
Total Plays
52
65
Yards / Play
6.1
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.22
Passing Yards
204
258
Comp/Att
18/19(95%)
32/52(62%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.71
-0.11
Rushing Yards
113
7
Rush Attempts
29
9
Yards / Rush
3.9
0.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.65
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
16
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.11
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-28
-32
Sack EPA
-6.22
-5.21
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
80
51
Penalty EPA
-6.44
-4.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-219
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-20.2
Home QB Adjustment
-21.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
J. Skelton
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-21.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
5
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28
EPA
EPA / Play
5
2
EPA / Pass
7
2
EPA / Rush
1
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
2
2
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3
EPA
EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
32
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
12
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Cardinals
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U