SF49ers
1-6
15
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
018
ARICardinals
1-6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
7
3
13
Cardinals
0
3
0
15
18
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
323
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
4.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.12
Passing Yards
160
235
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.10
Rushing Yards
107
88
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.74
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-30
-19
Sack EPA
-7.84
-2.98
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
59
62
Penalty EPA
-8.33
-7.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,472
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.4
Home QB Adjustment
-43.5
Away QB Adjustment
-50.9
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Beathard
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-50.9
J. Rosen
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-43.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
26
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32
EPA
EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
28
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
1
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
28
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
32
13
EPA
EPA / Play
32
26
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
9
Interceptions / Game
28
32
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
32
18
RZ Efficiency
8
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U