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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ cardinals week 8, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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SF logo
SF49ers
1-6
15
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
18
ARICardinals
1-6
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
7
3
13
Cardinals
0
3
0
15
18

Spread

ARI logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
267
323
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
4.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.12
Passing Yards
160
235
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.10
Rushing Yards
107
88
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.74
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-30
-19
Sack EPA
-7.84
-2.98
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
59
62
Penalty EPA
-8.33
-7.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-25
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+32.2
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.4
Home QB Adjustment
-43.5
Away QB Adjustment
-50.9
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Beathard headshot

C. Beathard

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-50.9
Value
Ptile
10/22
-2.3
37
10/29
-8.6
6
11/05
-5.8
16
11/12
6.3
88
11/26
-4.9
20
09/30
1.0
53
10/07
1.4
56
10/15
1.5
57
10/21
-11.3
2
J. Rosen headshot

J. Rosen

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-43.5
Value
Ptile
09/30
0.0
46
10/07
-5.2
17
10/14
-5.4
16
10/18
-11.4
2

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
22
26
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32

EPA

EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
28
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
1
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
28
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
32
13

EPA

EPA / Play
32
26
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
30
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
9
Interceptions / Game
28
32
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
32
18
RZ Efficiency
8
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
2
W
L
O
12/24
11
W
W
O
12/31
21
W
W
O
09/09
-8
L
L
U
09/16
3
W
L
O
09/23
-11
L
L
O
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-10
L
L
O
10/15
-3
L
W
O
10/21
-29
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-5
L
L
U
12/24
23
W
W
U
12/31
2
W
W
O
09/09
-18
L
L
U
09/16
-34
L
L
U
09/23
-2
L
W
U
09/30
-3
L
W
U
10/07
10
W
W
O
10/14
-10
L
P
O
10/18
-35
L
L
O