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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ cardinals week 10, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
1-7
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
23
ARICardinals
3-4
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
3
7
20
Cardinals
7
13
0
3
23

Spread

SF logo
+14

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
281
443
Total Plays
61
74
Yards / Play
4.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.03
Passing Yards
198
363
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
30/49(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.15
Rushing Yards
83
80
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
41%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-12.51
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-13
Sack EPA
-5.58
-6.07
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
100
--
Penalty EPA
-12.12
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+298
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,341
Home Field
+48.5
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
+34.9
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Value
Ptile
09/20
5.0
82
09/27
-10.6
1
10/04
-7.4
6
10/11
3.7
77
10/18
2.3
66
10/22
-9.7
2
11/01
-5.8
12
10/16
-0.1
47
10/23
-4.0
19
11/06
4.5
81
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Value
Ptile
01/03
-3.9
22
01/16
1.5
62
01/24
-9.2
3
09/11
1.8
63
09/18
4.1
79
09/25
-13.2
0
10/02
-2.0
34
10/17
1.1
57
10/23
0.2
50
10/30
1.0
56

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
31
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9

EPA

EPA / Play
29
2
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
10
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
13
RZ Efficiency
4
17
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
32
Yards / Game
8
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32

EPA

EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
21
29
EPA / Rush
20
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
3
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
5
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-15
L
L
O
01/03
3
W
W
U
09/12
28
W
W
U
09/18
-19
L
L
O
09/25
-19
L
L
O
10/02
-7
L
L
U
10/06
-12
L
L
O
10/16
-29
L
L
O
10/23
-17
L
L
O
11/06
-18
L
L
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/16
6
W
L
U
01/24
-34
L
L
O
09/11
-2
L
L
U
09/18
33
W
W
U
09/25
-15
L
L
O
10/02
-4
L
L
U
10/06
12
W
W
O
10/17
25
W
W
U
10/23
0
T
L
U
10/30
-10
L
L
O