SF49ers
1-7
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
023
ARICardinals
3-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
3
7
20
Cardinals
7
13
0
3
23
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
281
443
Total Plays
61
74
Yards / Play
4.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.03
Passing Yards
198
363
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
30/49(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.15
Rushing Yards
83
80
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
41%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-12.51
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-13
Sack EPA
-5.58
-6.07
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
100
--
Penalty EPA
-12.12
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+297
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,341
Home Field
+47.9
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
+34.9
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
31
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9
EPA
EPA / Play
29
2
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
10
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
13
RZ Efficiency
4
17
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
32
Yards / Game
8
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32
EPA
EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
21
29
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
3
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
5
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cardinals
4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U