SF49ers
5-4
38
TBD
Azteca Stadium
70°F
010
ARICardinals
4-6
TBD
Azteca Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
17
14
7
38
Cardinals
3
7
0
0
10
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
314
Total Plays
57
71
Yards / Play
6.8
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.38
-0.15
Passing Yards
--
247
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
30/44(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.56
-0.15
Rushing Yards
159
67
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
5.7
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
55%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.18
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-30
Sack EPA
--
-3.66
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
30
50
Penalty EPA
-3.90
-0.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market76.2%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-209
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
-25.1
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.1
Net QB Adjustment
-67.3
Home QB Adjustment
-46.1
Away QB Adjustment
+21.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-202.2
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-46.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
14
EPA
EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
23
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
26
10
Turnover EPA / Game
31
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
19
28
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
7
19
Rushing Yards / Game
22
2
EPA
EPA / Play
30
1
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
15
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
28
2
Fumbles / Game
7
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
24
16
RZ Efficiency
11
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U