nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ chargers week 4, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

SF logo
SF49ers
1-2
27
TBD
StubHub Center
78°F
9 mph
29
LACChargers
1-2
LAC logo
TBD
StubHub Center
78°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
8
3
7
3
21
Chargers
6
11
9
3
29

Spread

SF logo
+10

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
364
370
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
6.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.15
Passing Yards
288
244
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.03
Rushing Yards
76
126
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
42%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
25%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-15.55
-7.09
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-8
Sack EPA
-2.42
-1.90
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
29
49
Penalty EPA
-4.70
-8.03

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+218
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+86.2
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
-65.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

C. Beathard headshot

C. Beathard

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-65.7
Value
Ptile
10/22
-2.3
37
10/29
-8.6
6
11/05
-5.8
16
11/12
6.3
88
11/26
-4.9
20
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Value
Ptile
11/19
2.8
72
11/23
11.8
99
12/03
4.9
84
12/10
3.0
74
12/16
-7.3
11
12/24
1.5
63
12/31
10.5
98
09/09
8.4
92
09/16
6.3
86
09/23
2.5
67

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Chargers Defense
49ers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
14
10
Passing Yards / Game
16
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10

EPA

EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
20
8
EPA / Rush
28
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
30
18
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
1
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
19
4th Down Efficiency
19
23
RZ Efficiency
32
9
Chargers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Chargers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
28
Yards / Game
13
13
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13

EPA

EPA / Play
7
26
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
9
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
9
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
1
18
RZ Efficiency
9
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
10
W
W
O
11/26
-11
L
L
U
12/03
1
W
W
U
12/10
10
W
W
U
12/17
2
W
L
O
12/24
11
W
W
O
12/31
21
W
W
O
09/09
-8
L
L
U
09/16
3
W
L
O
09/23
-11
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
30
W
W
O
11/23
22
W
W
U
12/03
9
W
L
U
12/10
17
W
W
U
12/16
-17
L
L
U
12/24
7
W
L
U
12/31
20
W
W
U
09/09
-10
L
L
O
09/16
11
W
W
O
09/23
-12
L
L
O