SF49ers
1-2
27
TBD
StubHub Center
78°F
9 mph
29
LACChargers
1-2
TBD
StubHub Center
78°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
8
3
7
3
21
Chargers
6
11
9
3
29
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
370
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
6.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.15
Passing Yards
288
244
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.03
Rushing Yards
76
126
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
42%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
25%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-15.55
-7.09
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-8
Sack EPA
-2.42
-1.90
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
29
49
Penalty EPA
-4.70
-8.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+213
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+56.6
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+86.2
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
-65.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
C. Beathard
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-65.7
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
14
10
Passing Yards / Game
16
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10
EPA
EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
20
8
EPA / Rush
28
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
30
18
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
1
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
19
4th Down Efficiency
19
23
RZ Efficiency
32
9
Chargers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
28
Yards / Game
13
13
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13
EPA
EPA / Play
7
26
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
9
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
9
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
1
18
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U