SF49ers
15-3
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
031
KCChiefs
14-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
7
10
0
20
Chiefs
7
3
0
21
31
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
397
Total Plays
54
75
Yards / Play
6.5
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.22
Passing Yards
210
268
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.04
Rushing Yards
141
129
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.22
+0.46
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.70
-6.29
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-9
-18
Sack EPA
-3.02
-5.68
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
45
24
Penalty EPA
-5.63
-3.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,692
Away nfelo
1,668
Home Field
-16.3
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-16.3
Net QB Adjustment
+31.7
Home QB Adjustment
+24.6
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+24.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
8
17
Passing Yards / Game
15
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
25
EPA
EPA / Play
4
16
EPA / Pass
5
9
EPA / Rush
8
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
20
4
Fumbles / Game
26
24
Turnover EPA / Game
13
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
10
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
19
10
Chiefs Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
7
Yards / Game
4
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
2
EPA / Rush
7
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
22
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
14
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
8-1-1
ATS
5-5
O/U