SF49ers
14-5
22
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
025
KCChiefs
14-6
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
49ers
0
10
0
9
3
22
Chiefs
0
3
10
6
6
25
Spread
+2
Total
PUSH
47
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
455
Total Plays
71
79
Yards / Play
5.4
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.10
Passing Yards
272
325
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
34/46(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.13
Rushing Yards
110
130
Rush Attempts
31
30
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.44
-1.36
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-4
-8
Sack EPA
-1.60
-4.15
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-7.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,707
Away nfelo
1,678
Home Field
-16.5
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-16.5
Net QB Adjustment
-20.5
Home QB Adjustment
-3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+17.3
Market Regression
+19.3
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
2
Yards / Game
1
5
Passing Yards / Game
1
11
Rushing Yards / Game
4
17
EPA
EPA / Play
1
7
EPA / Pass
1
4
EPA / Rush
5
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
12
27
Fumbles / Game
9
5
Turnover EPA / Game
24
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
1
8
Chiefs Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
5
EPA
EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
13
8
EPA / Rush
16
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
27
Interceptions / Game
21
2
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
12
14
RZ Efficiency
20
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U