SF49ers
11-4
27
TBD
FedExField
48°F
7 mph
10
WASCommanders
4-11
TBD
FedExField
48°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
10
3
7
7
27
Commanders
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
-14
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
225
Total Plays
68
43
Yards / Play
6.0
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.19
Passing Yards
224
163
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.34
Rushing Yards
184
62
Rush Attempts
39
14
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
12
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.04
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-6
Sack EPA
-1.71
-2.91
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
40
Penalty EPA
-1.84
-4.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market87.0%
Model84.4%
Spread Pick
Commanders+14.0
Expected Value
+8.5%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-259
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,712
Home Field
+70.3
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+24.6
Net QB Adjustment
-27.3
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
-2.7
Final Difference
-292.7
Model Spread
+12.5
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
4
27
EPA
EPA / Play
1
32
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
5
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
24
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
1
19
Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
4
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5
EPA
EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
26
8
EPA / Rush
10
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
27
Interceptions / Game
30
2
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U