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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ commanders week 17, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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SF logo
SF49ers
11-4
27
TBD
FedExField
48°F
7 mph
10
WASCommanders
4-11
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
48°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
10
3
7
7
27
Commanders
0
10
0
0
10

Spread

SF logo
-14

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
408
225
Total Plays
68
43
Yards / Play
6.0
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.19
Passing Yards
224
163
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.34
Rushing Yards
184
62
Rush Attempts
39
14
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
28
12
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.04
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-6
Sack EPA
-1.71
-2.91
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
40
Penalty EPA
-1.84
-4.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market87.0%
Model84.5%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+14.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.5%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-261
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,712
Home Field
+70.3
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+24.6
Net QB Adjustment
-27.3
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
-2.9
Final Difference
-293.9
Model Spread
+12.5

Quarterbacks

B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Value
Ptile
10/15
-6.4
12
10/23
-0.9
44
10/29
5.3
83
11/12
5.3
83
11/19
5.5
84
11/23
-1.2
42
12/03
8.3
94
12/10
2.9
69
12/17
5.8
85
12/25
-8.3
8
S. Howell headshot

S. Howell

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Value
Ptile
10/15
-4.4
22
10/22
-8.1
8
10/29
12.0
99
11/05
1.9
63
11/12
5.6
84
11/19
-1.9
35
11/23
0.6
53
12/03
-3.4
26
12/17
-5.9
15
12/24
-11.6
1

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense
49ers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
4
27

EPA

EPA / Play
1
32
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
5
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
24
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
1
19
Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Commanders logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
4
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5

EPA

EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
26
8
EPA / Rush
10
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
27
Interceptions / Game
30
2
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
6
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-2
L
L
P
10/23
-5
L
L
U
10/29
-14
L
L
O
11/12
31
W
W
U
11/19
13
W
L
U
11/23
18
W
W
O
12/03
23
W
W
O
12/10
12
W
L
U
12/17
16
W
W
O
12/25
-14
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
8
W
W
U
10/22
-7
L
L
U
10/29
-7
L
P
O
11/05
3
W
W
U
11/12
-3
L
W
O
11/19
-12
L
L
O
11/23
-35
L
L
O
12/03
-30
L
L
O
12/17
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
W
O