SF49ers
1-0
17
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
76°F
13 mph
11
PHIEagles
1-0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
76°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
0
10
17
Eagles
3
0
0
8
11
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
330
Total Plays
68
56
Yards / Play
4.5
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
177
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
12/24(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.09
Rushing Yards
117
153
Rush Attempts
38
30
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
43%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-4.78
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
60
57
Penalty EPA
-8.76
-8.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+83.0
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+23.6
Net QB Adjustment
+7.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
19
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
26
3
Rushing Yards / Game
7
9
EPA
EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
8
23
EPA / Rush
15
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
26
Interceptions / Game
20
21
Fumbles / Game
30
31
Turnover EPA / Game
19
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
23
4th Down Efficiency
24
9
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
19
Rushing Yards / Game
1
6
EPA
EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
3
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
4
15
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
8
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U