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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ giants week 5, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
1-3
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
4 mph
30
NYGGiants
2-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
3
7
14
27
Giants
3
10
7
10
30

Spread

SF logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
380
525
Total Plays
64
75
Yards / Play
5.9
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.25
Passing Yards
256
--
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
41/54(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.40
Rushing Yards
124
84
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
22
30
Passing 1st downs
11
23
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
57%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
8
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.80
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-1.60
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
28
65
Penalty EPA
-3.18
-6.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,424
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+32.0
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
-16.0
Market Regression
+3.5
Final Difference
174.5
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
Value
Ptile
11/23
-1.4
40
11/27
-9.9
4
12/07
-9.3
5
12/14
-5.2
19
12/20
9.0
94
12/28
4.7
81
09/14
-0.2
49
09/20
5.0
82
09/27
-10.6
1
10/04
-7.4
6
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
11/23
5.4
84
11/30
-0.6
46
12/07
0.7
54
12/14
4.3
79
12/21
10.4
97
12/28
3.1
72
09/13
-2.9
30
09/20
4.9
82
09/24
5.5
85
10/04
0.9
56

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Giants Defense
49ers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
32
30
Yards / Game
31
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
21
24

EPA

EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
29
25
EPA / Rush
9
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
31
12
Giants Offense vs 49ers Defense
Giants logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
17
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
1
Rushing Yards / Game
18
29

EPA

EPA / Play
7
27
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
21
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
2
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
18
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
29
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

3-7
SU
1-8-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
4
W
L
U
11/27
-16
L
L
U
12/07
-11
L
L
U
12/14
-10
L
P
U
12/20
-3
L
L
O
12/28
3
W
L
U
09/14
17
W
W
U
09/20
-25
L
L
O
09/27
-40
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
11/30
-1
L
L
O
12/07
29
W
W
U
12/14
11
W
W
U
12/21
10
W
W
O
12/28
-8
L
L
O
09/13
-1
L
W
O
09/20
-4
L
L
U
09/24
11
W
W
O
10/04
14
W
W
U