SF49ers
1-3
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
4 mph
30
NYGGiants
2-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
3
7
14
27
Giants
3
10
7
10
30
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
525
Total Plays
64
75
Yards / Play
5.9
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.25
Passing Yards
256
--
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
41/54(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.40
Rushing Yards
124
84
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
30
Passing 1st downs
11
23
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
57%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
8
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.80
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-1.60
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
28
65
Penalty EPA
-3.18
-6.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
49ers+7.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+32.0
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
-16.0
Market Regression
+3.9
Final Difference
174.9
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
30
Yards / Game
31
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
21
24
EPA
EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
29
25
EPA / Rush
9
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
31
12
Giants Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
17
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
1
Rushing Yards / Game
18
29
EPA
EPA / Play
7
27
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
21
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
2
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
18
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
29
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
1-8-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U