SF49ers
4-5
30
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
68°F
17 mph
10
JAXJaguars
2-7
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
68°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
17
7
3
30
Jaguars
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
200
Total Plays
66
44
Yards / Play
5.0
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.09
Passing Yards
162
146
Comp/Att
16/22(73%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.12
Rushing Yards
171
54
Rush Attempts
42
16
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
13
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+4.92
-4.75
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-12
Sack EPA
-3.71
-3.47
Penalties
1
8
Penalty Yards
--
56
Penalty EPA
--
-7.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-141
Home nfelo
1,367
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+75.0
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
+21.4
Net QB Adjustment
-16.5
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
28
Yards / Game
11
20
Passing Yards / Game
26
7
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
11
31
EPA / Pass
8
31
EPA / Rush
15
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
22
Interceptions / Game
20
30
Fumbles / Game
30
32
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
5
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
19
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6
EPA
EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
21
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
24
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
28
15
Turnover EPA / Game
3
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
28
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U