SF49ers
2-1
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
4 mph
0
NYJJets
2-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
7
11
28
Jets
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
145
Total Plays
68
50
Yards / Play
5.6
2.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.75
Passing Yards
134
100
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
14/30(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
3.3
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-1.00
Rushing Yards
247
45
Rush Attempts
44
17
Yards / Rush
5.6
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
9
Passing 1st downs
7
5
Rushing 1st downs
16
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
33%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
60%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-22.57
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-9
-12
Sack EPA
-2.74
-8.27
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
67
30
Penalty EPA
-7.64
-4.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model52.4%
Spread Pick
Jets+4.0
Expected Value
+17.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-7.0
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.4
Market Regression
-15.8
Final Difference
-16.8
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
5
6
Passing Yards / Game
21
1
Rushing Yards / Game
2
26
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
7
11
EPA / Rush
1
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
6
Interceptions / Game
2
23
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
8
31
RZ Efficiency
16
26
Jets Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
30
4
Passing Yards / Game
27
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
3
EPA
EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
30
10
EPA / Rush
15
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
12
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
28
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
17
19
RZ Efficiency
25
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U