SF49ers
-
41
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
033
DETLions
-
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
18
7
3
35
Lions
0
10
7
16
33
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
442
434
Total Plays
55
86
Yards / Play
8.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.06
Passing Yards
311
318
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
38/59(64%)
Yards / Pass
12.0
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.73
-0.12
Rushing Yards
131
116
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
31
Passing 1st downs
13
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.43
-7.54
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-24
Sack EPA
-1.98
-4.40
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
79
45
Penalty EPA
-8.63
-5.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model69.4%
Spread Pick
Lions+9.5
Expected Value
+23.9%
Cover Probability
64.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+84.5
Base HFA
+44.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
+24.1
Net QB Adjustment
+2.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
-38.1
Final Difference
-142.2
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
31
Yards / Game
11
29
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
28
EPA
EPA / Play
11
30
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
19
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
30
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
24
28
RZ Efficiency
6
30
Lions Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
22
4
Passing Yards / Game
25
19
Rushing Yards / Game
18
6
EPA
EPA / Play
23
13
EPA / Pass
21
13
EPA / Rush
25
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
14
26
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
8
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
21
5
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U