SF49ers
4-10
17
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
032
DETLions
5-9
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
10
0
0
17
Lions
3
17
3
9
32
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
371
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
5.5
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.14
Passing Yards
201
284
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.14
Rushing Yards
121
87
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
26
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
11%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.59
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-17
Sack EPA
-6.63
-2.13
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
65
71
Penalty EPA
-6.56
-7.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+249
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+111.4
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.6
Time Adj
+31.7
Net QB Adjustment
+81.0
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
-65.7
Market Regression
-0.3
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-65.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
23
Yards / Game
31
18
Passing Yards / Game
23
29
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20
EPA
EPA / Play
30
24
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
9
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
1
12
Turnover EPA / Game
28
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
31
29
Lions Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
9
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29
EPA
EPA / Play
15
27
EPA / Pass
16
29
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
2
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
11
30
Turnover EPA / Game
13
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
18
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
2
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U