SF49ers
-
30
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
11 mph
22
GBPackers
-
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
13
7
7
30
Packers
0
7
0
9
16
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
326
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
6.1
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.07
Passing Yards
191
281
Comp/Att
20/26(77%)
30/45(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.17
Rushing Yards
186
45
Rush Attempts
32
14
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
22%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.19
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-20
-24
Sack EPA
-6.03
-1.49
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
66
77
Penalty EPA
-5.40
-9.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+188
Home nfelo
1,647
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+13.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
-43.9
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
13
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
2
25
EPA
EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
1
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
15
29
Turnover EPA / Game
29
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
16
28
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
3
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3
EPA
EPA / Play
6
8
EPA / Pass
5
10
EPA / Rush
20
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
12
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
9
19
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U