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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ packers week 1, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
-
30
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
11 mph
22
GBPackers
-
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
13
7
7
30
Packers
0
7
0
9
16

Spread

SF logo
+6

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
377
326
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
6.1
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.07
Passing Yards
191
281
Comp/Att
20/26(77%)
30/45(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.17
Rushing Yards
186
45
Rush Attempts
32
14
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
22%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.19
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-20
-24
Sack EPA
-6.03
-1.49
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
66
77
Penalty EPA
-5.40
-9.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+185
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+13.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
-43.9
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
Value
Ptile
11/13
0.8
58
11/20
2.0
66
11/24
-10.6
1
12/04
3.6
75
12/11
-8.3
5
12/19
2.8
71
12/24
-1.5
39
01/01
1.9
66
01/14
5.7
85
01/22
0.1
53
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
Value
Ptile
10/23
6.9
90
11/06
9.3
96
11/14
6.5
88
11/20
5.4
83
11/24
5.3
82
12/04
8.3
95
12/11
0.1
52
12/18
0.9
60
12/25
12.6
99
01/15
1.8
65

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
49ers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
13
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
2
25

EPA

EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
1
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
15
29
Turnover EPA / Game
29
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
16
28
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Packers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
3
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3

EPA

EPA / Play
6
8
EPA / Pass
5
10
EPA / Rush
20
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
12
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
9
19
RZ Efficiency
2
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/20
16
W
W
U
11/24
-10
L
L
U
12/04
26
W
W
U
12/11
-2
L
L
O
12/19
17
W
W
U
12/24
2
W
W
U
01/01
7
W
L
O
01/14
4
W
W
O
01/22
-3
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
7
W
W
O
11/14
38
W
W
O
11/20
9
W
L
O
11/24
12
W
W
U
12/04
3
W
L
O
12/11
30
W
W
O
12/18
-5
L
L
U
12/25
14
W
W
O
01/01
4
W
W
O
01/15
-17
L
L
O