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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ packers week 6, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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SF logo
SF49ers
1-4
30
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
5 mph
33
GBPackers
2-2
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
14
10
3
3
30
Packers
17
3
3
10
33

Spread

SF logo
+9.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
401
521
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
7.3
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.13
Passing Yards
227
405
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.12
Rushing Yards
174
116
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
22%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.20
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-20
Sack EPA
-2.34
-4.14
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
10
54
Penalty EPA
-0.84
-4.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model77.2%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+158
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+37.0
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-20.6
Net QB Adjustment
+64.5
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
-48.8
Market Regression
-2.5
Final Difference
211.8
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

C. Beathard headshot

C. Beathard

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-48.8
Value
Ptile
10/22
-2.3
37
10/29
-8.6
6
11/05
-5.8
16
11/12
6.3
88
11/26
-4.9
20
09/30
1.0
53
10/07
1.4
56
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
09/24
1.5
64
09/28
3.1
75
10/08
2.3
69
10/15
-5.5
17
12/17
-0.4
49
09/09
6.1
85
09/16
1.9
61
09/23
1.6
58
09/30
-0.3
44
10/07
6.9
89

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
49ers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
22
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
21
Rushing Yards / Game
12
23

EPA

EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
20
30
EPA / Rush
28
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
32
17
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Packers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
10
13
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13

EPA

EPA / Play
14
26
EPA / Pass
16
28
EPA / Rush
2
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
1
32
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
21
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
14
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
1
W
W
U
12/10
10
W
W
U
12/17
2
W
L
O
12/24
11
W
W
O
12/31
21
W
W
O
09/09
-8
L
L
U
09/16
3
W
L
O
09/23
-11
L
L
O
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-10
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
6
W
W
O
12/10
6
W
W
O
12/17
-7
L
L
O
12/23
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-24
L
L
O
09/09
1
W
L
O
09/16
0
T
W
O
09/23
-14
L
L
O
09/30
22
W
W
U
10/07
-8
L
L
O