SF49ers
1-4
30
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
5 mph
33
GBPackers
2-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
14
10
3
3
30
Packers
17
3
3
10
33
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
521
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
7.3
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.13
Passing Yards
227
405
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.12
Rushing Yards
174
116
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
22%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.20
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-20
Sack EPA
-2.34
-4.14
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
10
54
Penalty EPA
-0.84
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model77.2%
Spread Pick
49ers+9.5
Expected Value
+1.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+159
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+36.5
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-20.4
Net QB Adjustment
+64.5
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
-48.8
Market Regression
-2.6
Final Difference
212.0
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
C. Beathard
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-48.8
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
22
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
21
Rushing Yards / Game
12
23
EPA
EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
20
30
EPA / Rush
28
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
32
17
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
10
13
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13
EPA
EPA / Play
14
26
EPA / Pass
16
28
EPA / Rush
2
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
1
32
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
21
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
14
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U